Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Last night I dreamt that the market had already collapsed, and upon waking, Ethereum had crashed through an entire range. Meanwhile, altcoins were directly spiking up and down, and just when the so-called altcoin season had heated up for two days, it was doused with a bucket of cold water.

To put it simply, this wave is clearly about deleveraging, killing off a batch of the greedy, and exchanging some chips to rebuild faith. Now, looking at the overall market, it seems to be stirring again, showing some signs of a rebound, but don’t rush to climax; it will likely take some time to grind.

Looking at the outside market, Tesla had a major drop after hours. The earnings report fell short of expectations, causing a direct 5% drop. Although it has no direct relation to the crypto space, Elon Musk is quite involved with it, and this drop may also transmit some negative sentiment here.

Google, on the other hand, provided a decent earnings report, which somewhat balances things out. But overall, the rhythm of this wave of increase has changed. Bitcoin and Ethereum have been strong for two weeks, while altcoins only managed to muddle through for a week before crashing. What does this indicate?

It indicates that this wave of the market was not created by the crypto space itself; it came from external funds, especially Ethereum. Yesterday, I analyzed that it relied on the spot ETF's primary and secondary market to buy up, not on chain traders pulling it up. Traditional funds are buying stories, not coin prices. Once they start doing the math, sorry, no altcoin will escape.

Do you think the overflow of funds can give you some liquidity? Think again; traditional funds are not running away at all, and altcoins are still hoping for rotation? Don’t be foolish; just wait for the mainstream coins to catch their breath, and it’s still early for altcoin opportunities.

Currently, Ethereum looks like a replica of Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, relying on external pushes rather than internal explosions. There is a bubble, but this bubble is much cleaner than the leverage and manipulation in the crypto space. At least others have real money to buy, rather than just pulling it up to cut you off.

Back to the market, Bitcoin has gone through three major phases since April 8. The first phase was a corrective drop to eliminate shorts, the second phase was a pullback to accumulate, and the third phase was driven up by the sentiment around stablecoin ETFs and the hype around CRCL (the issuer of stablecoin USDC).

In simple terms, the first two phases were the crypto space's own doing, while the last phase purely relied on financial innovations from the US stock market to inject adrenaline. Especially with this wave of ETFs, it has genuinely pulled the entire market out of the mire, serving as a lifeline. But the question arises: how many times can this lifeline save us? Not many; American money doesn’t just flow in randomly; it comes in with trends.

Currently, the MACD hasn’t fully completed its top divergence, and technically, there’s still a possibility of a push. But this wave has been a terrible experience, with poor sleep and constant anxiety. You might wonder if it could push to 130,000? It’s not impossible.

However, in this terminal market, altcoins are basically going to die during Bitcoin's final sprint of a few thousand points. Most small coins will be abandoned; no one will have the time to manage them. This is a rule.

Ethereum is currently in a typical retracement structure. It may need to dip a bit more; don’t rush to short. If you can catch a high point to short, just be happy about it. The current resistance is around 3672, and the overall direction is still bullish.

I don’t think reaching 4000 before the end of the month is difficult, but if you fantasize about a direct push to 4500, I can only say to be realistic. At this stage, focus on the trend and stick to the mainstream; don’t mess with altcoins.

Big institutions won’t give altcoins much opportunity; waiting for the altcoin season to return will depend on the next real internal explosion, not this current pseudo-prosperity driven by foreign capital frantically trading ETFs…

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 120300

First Resistance Level: 119400

Support Level Reference:

Second Support Level: 118400

First Support Level: 117300

Bitcoin is currently in a range of 117K to 119K, with no significant changes in overall support and pressure. Today, the second support level has been slightly adjusted to respond flexibly to the market conditions.

Yesterday, the price closed with a long lower shadow around 118.4K, showing clear buying support, so we can consider 118.4K as the first short-term support. The 4-hour level at 117.3K has been tested three times without breaking, so it can be set as the second support.

The current K-line is above the 20MA and 60MA moving averages, so we should pay attention to the direction of the moving averages. Although the volatility is large, the lower support has not been broken, so we can still maintain a rebound mindset.

The first resistance at 119.4K is a key resistance. If it continues to hold above the 20MA and 60MA, there may be a chance for another test. Only when 119.4K is effectively broken can we consider the pressure at 120.3K. If the market shows a gradual push and can confirm the previous resistance as support, the probability of a breakout will significantly increase.

The first support at 118.4K, where the 20MA and 60MA also converge, belongs to the short-term support range. This area may be briefly broken, so we can view 118 to 118.4K as a rough psychological support zone.

The second support at 117.3K has been confirmed effective three times in yesterday's 4-hour chart, making it the most critical lower support line currently. If it breaks, the bearish pressure will continue to rise.

7.24 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the 117300-118400 range. Target: 119400-120300

Short Entry Reference: Sell in batches in the 119400-120300 range. Target: 118400-117300

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performative players; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (public account: Coin God Master Chen). For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about K-lines, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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