Currently, the most popular candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair in the market are Bessenet, Walsh, Hassett, and Waller. Among them, Bessenet is Trump's favorite, but Trump has also expressed a preference for Bessenet to remain in the position of Secretary of the Treasury. Therefore, based on the data from Kalshi, Walsh has the highest probability, followed by Hassett and Waller. This is because both Walsh and Waller have backgrounds as Federal Reserve governors, with Walsh being a former governor, which gives him a certain level of influence within the Federal Reserve.

I personally predict that Trump is very likely to announce the successor to the Federal Reserve Chair around the time the tariffs are fully implemented, in order to mitigate investors' concerns about tariffs causing inflation. The July interest rate meeting may be even more important to see what kind of statements Powell will make.

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