The most essential investment opportunity comes from the "cognitive time difference"—it's not that others don't know, but that they are not yet brave enough to believe.
In the short term, the market is a game of behavior—forced buying, forced selling, and following trends, sweeping away individual judgment like a flood.
In the long term, the market is a competition of cognition:
The real profits never come from the visible growth data, but from whether you can take a step ahead, insightfully recognizing the future that "others will eventually believe," and daring to bet on it while it is still questioned and undervalued.
This is the essence of the Davis Double Play: it’s not the doubling of profits that makes you money, but the moment you bet on "others have not yet realized this will double";
It’s not the expansion of the price-to-earnings ratio itself that makes you rich, but capturing the low point where market sentiment has yet to take off.
Many people think that investment profits come from "information asymmetry," but in fact, information is now almost symmetrical; the real excess returns are hidden in "cognitive asymmetry," more specifically, the cognitive time difference between you and the market.
So, don’t ask whether an asset is worth something now; ask: in a few years, will most people regret not buying?
Now try asking yourself: if you are prepared to hold this coin for many years, do you feel that you possess an absolute "cognitive difference"?
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