Weekend Volatility Review of Bitcoin Contracts
The tasks from Friday and Saturday have already made it clear that I would engage in some short-term volatility trading when the price dropped below $118,000 over the weekend. I thought this way and acted accordingly, making a total of five trades from Friday night until now, mostly between $177,800 and $118,200.
The reason for this approach is that I anticipated low liquidity over the weekend, and without any significant negative news, the volatility of $BTC would be relatively limited. Therefore, as long as I could identify the general low and high points, I could trade the intermediate swings.
Early Saturday morning, I roughly calculated that around $117,000 was a relatively stable bottom position. As long as there was no obvious negative news, there was still a chance for a rebound. However, it was quite difficult to execute orders at the $117,000 level, so I primarily focused on trading between $117,600 and $117,900.
Among these, executing trades at $117,900 was easier, but the upward movement was limited, and the number of fluctuations was too many. One trade wasn't enough to monitor closely, and I couldn't reach a level of trading that was completely offline, so I only made one trade there. The others were around $117,600 and $117,700, and I was basically prepared to take a profit of $500, as I saw it was difficult to break through $118,300.
Even if it did break through, it would only be once or twice. If I only made one or two trades over a weekend, it felt a bit wasteful. Therefore, to make multiple swings, I chose to exit above $118,200, allowing for several more volatility trades. Of course, some friends asked why I didn't use grid trading. Grid trading is fine, but it doesn't help develop trading instincts; ultimately, trading relies on oneself, so I prefer a more manual approach.
Currently, I exited a trade at $118,700, capturing about $1,000 in profit due to $MSTR announcing the purchase of BTC, which caused Bitcoin's price to rise a bit. However, I personally estimate this rise to be only a short-term behavior, so I decisively exited. This is likely the last trade of the weekend, or at most, I might make one more, mainly concerned about potential changes when liquidity returns on Monday.
I only engage in this short-term trading strategy on weekends. Once I determine that the price impact is minimal, I can start trading back and forth without being greedy. I take profits on every trade that yields less than 10%. The net profit over these two days has exceeded $1,000, yielding about 35% in returns.
Currently, the total profit has reached $10,500, which is a 5.25 times increase compared to the initial $2,000. I will continue to trade slowly.
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