The Threat of Ancient Whales and Expectations for the Stablecoin Bill: A Review of Bitcoin Contract Trading

Since the last time, I haven't continued to open positions, mainly because I haven't found a better timing. I won't open positions without suitable events, and this is my third review. So when the "liquidation" event occurred on July 15 due to the movement of ancient whales, I felt it was time to enter the market.

At that time, my thought was that the panic selling caused by the transfer of ancient whales wouldn't last long. After all, data has shown that ancient whales do not transfer large amounts to exchanges for selling, and the impact of OTC on prices can be almost ignored. Moreover, there was a vote on the stablecoin bill that night, and Trump's public statements were significant, especially during cryptocurrency week. I thought this could cover the negative impact of ancient whales, and the odds were quite favorable, so I placed an order.

The first order was quite interesting. On the evening of the 15th, the price of $BTC was fluctuating between $118,000 and $118,300. I thought I would place my first order at $117,777, hoping to catch it. If I couldn't, it would be fine. After I placed the order, I didn't expect the price to keep falling. At that time, it hadn't reached the point where the stablecoin bill was rejected, and there was no obvious negative news; it was just a simple decline, dropping to around $115,700. Since my liquidation point was around $112,500, I didn't pay much attention.

Later, after the U.S. stock market opened, the price began to gradually recover, reaching around $117,500 by the evening. Then the stablecoin bill was not passed, and Trump directly stated that it would be passed the next day (July 16). At that time, the price hadn't dropped significantly; in fact, it returned to around $117,000 when the U.S. stock market closed. I gave up on the expectation of opening a second order and just held onto this position.

Time moved to July 16, and I was waiting for the stablecoin bill. The price had returned to around $118,500, then fluctuated narrowly. Suddenly, with rumors that Trump was going to fire Powell, the market surged, and Bitcoin rose to around $119,700. My immediate judgment was that this was impossible, but I still tweeted about it. After I posted, the price of $BTC had already fallen below $119,000.

However, there were continuous market voices saying that Trump's firing of Powell was serious, so I felt the market would FOMO a bit, and the fluctuations might intensify. Therefore, I chose to take profit on 80% at $119,100. I open positions with 0.5 Bitcoin each time, so the profit wasn't much, around 23%. I made a profit of about $520, and I planned to wait for the vote with the remaining 20%.

Later, indeed, before the vote, the market fluctuated due to Trump's indecision, with the price dropping to around $118,500 at its lowest. I considered adding to my position again, but after thinking it over, the uncertain risk was a bit high. I had already made a profit and locked in the gains, so there was no need to take further risks, and I didn't continue to open positions.

The last 20% was relatively simple. After the first vote, there was a second vote and various bill resolutions. Then Trump spoke again, stating that the stablecoin bill would be passed on July 17, while other bills would take about two days. By this time, the price had returned to around $119,300, so I placed a limit order at $119,400, ready to sell if possible; if not, I would just hold.

As a result, I successfully sold at $119,400, with a total profit of around $680, which should be less than 30% return. Although it's not a lot, I still achieved a profit, and it only took a day. This time it was relatively easy, without the major twists and turns of the previous two times, so I felt it was acceptable.

If the price continues to drop, for example, if it falls below $118,000 before July 18, I might consider making another order, betting on the passage of the stablecoin bill. If it doesn't happen, then it will be pulled back. I'll look for opportunities next time.

After completing this order, my overall profit has reached $9,500, which is 4.7 times the initial $2,000 I put in, and it has been less than four months. I had a two-week gap without opening positions. Although I can't compare with the big players, I open positions of 0.5 BTC each time, slowly accumulating to see how far I can go.

I know many friends will say that such small orders have a different mindset. If it were a large order, I might not do it this way, or they might question the meaning of such small orders, as they don't reflect real trading. But for me, I take every trade very seriously and wouldn't disregard it just because the order is small.

Because my orders reflect my personal understanding of the market. If I'm wrong, then I have to face the consequences. If I'm right, it means my analysis direction is correct.

Of course, my main position is in spot trading; contracts are just a means of verification. I often tell my friends that analysis exists to assist trading. If it can't help with trading, then analysis is useless. What I hope to do is to integrate knowledge and action. If I believe I'm right, then I will place an order and use the final results to prove my judgment. I will clearly explain all the reasons for opening and closing positions.

I say this and I do this, so the size of an order is not important. What matters is whether my understanding of the reasons for the current trade is correct; this is what I want to convey.

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