Based on the historical data of positions that have never been invalidated for over a year in $BTC, the market is currently in the second distribution cycle. Although there have been transfers of ancient whales during this period, such phenomena have occurred in previous cycles and have not affected the overall trend judgment.

Currently, this data has fallen below the lowest point at the beginning of 2025, indicating that long-term holders are continuously reducing their positions, and the accuracy of this indicator is still being validated. If this logic continues to hold, it suggests that although BTC is currently at a high level, it may still continue to rise, and the distribution cycle has not yet ended.

This is also the only data in my personal observations that clearly supports the idea that Bitcoin will rise again.

This article is sponsored by #Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh

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