Last week (July 8 - July 14), BTC reached a new high, breaking the $120,000 mark, while ETH spot ETF inflows exceeded $900 million in a single week, setting a new record. On July 10, positive policy signals catalyzed market sentiment, and the BTC price rose to around $118,000 for consolidation. On July 14, driven by institutional funds, BTC refreshed its historical high, briefly reaching $123,218, with a maximum weekly increase of 13.56%. Currently, the BTC price has retraced to around $117,000. ETH exhibited an "M" shaped upward trend last week, repeatedly breaking the $3,000 mark, with a maximum weekly increase of 22.73% (Binance spot, July 15, 17:22).
Market Interpretation
BTC Breaks $123,000, Driven by Positive Policies and Safe-Haven Demand
BTC's price recently hit a new high, breaking $120,000 and reaching a peak of $123,218, with a total market capitalization of $2.36 trillion. Daily charts show a clear bullish trend, with increased trading volume and active market participation. This round of price increase was boosted by policy signals promoting blockchain infrastructure in Shanghai, leading to heightened market sentiment. Meanwhile, the daily net inflow of the U.S. spot BTC ETF reached $1.176 billion, a near three-month high, indicating continued institutional investment. Companies like MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital are continuously increasing their BTC holdings, reinforcing the "digital gold" narrative.
On a global scale, BTC's safe-haven demand has increased under tariff and inflation expectations. Although blockchain applications are driven by policy support, high leverage and regulatory uncertainties still exist, necessitating caution regarding short-term adjustments and market volatility. Overall, BTC is consolidating at high levels, with future attention on policy dynamics and capital flows.
Altcoin Sector Warms Up, Structural Market Driven by Funds and Policy Expectations
On July 10, BTC first broke $120,000, with over 90% of the top 200 altcoins by market capitalization rising, HBAR and SUI soaring by 25% and 12% respectively, while mainstream coins like ETH, SOL, BNB, and XRP also strengthened. Although BTC continues to set new highs, overall market sentiment remains rational, with FOMO significantly weakened, and investors' focus gradually shifting towards the altcoin sector.
Currently, while altcoins are generally rebounding, the overall increase has not met expectations, and the divergence between ETH and BTC's trends remains evident. With rising expectations for ETF approvals and improved liquidity, altcoins are likely to experience a catch-up rally. The true "altcoin season" may need to wait for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with August to September being a critical window.
USDT and USDC Supply Hits New Highs, Signaling Increased Market Liquidity
Recently, both Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) have reached historical highs in supply, with USDC's market capitalization growing by $1.3 billion to $62.8 billion since July, and USDT increasing by $1.4 billion to nearly $160 billion. As core liquidity tools in the crypto market, the expansion of stablecoins is often seen as an important signal for new capital entering the market. This round of BTC and mainstream coin rebounds is highly synchronized with the continuous growth of total stablecoin supply, reflecting ample exchange funds and a rebound in market risk appetite.
Market Highlights
"Genius Act" Passed by Senate, Key Turning Point for Stablecoin Regulation
On July 12, the U.S. Senate passed the "Genius Act," attracting widespread attention from the banking and legal sectors. The bill stipulates that stablecoin holders have priority claims in bankruptcy, requiring stablecoins to be 100% backed by highly liquid assets (such as U.S. Treasuries), and issuers must disclose reserves monthly and have freezing capabilities. The bill is designed to enhance user confidence and compliance thresholds, strengthening the linkage between stablecoins and traditional finance. The bill is currently awaiting review by the House of Representatives, and if successfully enacted, it could become a watershed moment for the compliance of stablecoins and the evolution of the industry landscape.
Hong Kong and South Korea Collaborate to Advance Stablecoin Regulation, Promoting Standardization
On August 1, Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" will officially take effect, requiring issuers to maintain 1:1 reserves, undergo regular audits, and obtain licenses. South Korea is paying close attention, and both sides are exploring stablecoin applications pegged to fiat currencies like the Hong Kong dollar and South Korean won, proposing a multilateral cooperation initiative. Currently, Hong Kong has attracted over 40 companies to apply for relevant licenses, and regional collaboration in Asia is expected to further promote the healthy development of the digital asset market.
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