Author: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily

The highly anticipated PUMP token 1C0 will officially launch tonight at 22:00. Although there are still negative voices in the market criticizing the pump.fun team and claiming that the valuation of PUMP is too high before the token sale, the truth of "FUD from group friends, I will work hard" remains appealing.

The public sale of the PUMP token was bustling, with 150 billion tokens (15% of the total supply) sold out in just 12 minutes. According to Arkham's monitoring, 189 addresses invested $1 million each in the public sale on the PUMP chain, and there were even reports of crashes on trading platforms due to excessive instantaneous traffic.

Additionally, there was a "small episode" tonight. According to information on the pump.fun official webpage, this public sale sold 12.5% of the tokens, raising $500 million, which differs from the previously announced plan to sell 15% of the tokens and raise $600 million. The market speculates that this discrepancy may be due to the public sale systems of several exchanges not being synchronized. As of now, pump.fun has not publicly clarified the reason for the difference.

Regardless, tonight's public sale is not the end but the beginning of a larger market game. According to official regulations, although 1C0 participants can receive tokens after the public sale ends, the tokens will initially be non-transferable (not tradable). The transfer rights for the tokens will open 48-72 hours after the end of 1C0, which means they could potentially be tradable as early as next Monday.

So, will the outcome after the opening lead traders to "slap their thighs" or "be surprised"? Two mainstream scenarios are circulating in the market:

Panic Selling by Weak Hands at Opening, Officially Releases Good News to Pull Back Value

The first scenario is that when the PUMP token opens next week, the token price does not experience a significant short-term surge. Participants with weak hands may panic and sell off. After short-term speculators have sold off, the official team will then release positive news to boost the price, successfully washing out retail investors. This scenario has some rationale, and MoonRock Capital CEO Simon shares the same viewpoint, believing that the PUMP token will first drop to $2.5 billion after opening and then rise to $20 billion.

The FUD faced by Pump.fun during this 1C0 can be said to be unprecedented, including the gradual loss of liquidity in the meme track, a $4 billion valuation being too high, declining daily revenue and user activity for Pump.fun, the leading position of meme launch platforms being at risk, the token lacking actual value, the team's token unlock plan being opaque, and previous continuous selling of SOL for cashing out. If the token price is not boosted after opening, these FUD statements will be rationalized, solidifying Pump.fun's identity as the "bad guy" in the industry. Additionally, 33% of the tokens (valued at $1.32 billion) will be directly circulating after the opening, which may lead to the market being unable to withstand such a massive selling pressure during panic selling.

However, the exciting part of this scenario is the latter half, where Pump.fun's official team and market makers will use this FUD to accumulate tokens, and after successfully "washing the car," they will release the backlog of positive news. So, what kind of good news will Pump.fun release to re-engage market sentiment?

Previously, according to Lookonchain's monitoring, Pump.fun has not deposited SOL into Kraken since June 10. The last time Pump.fun sold SOL was on June 11, when it deposited 132,180 SOL into Kraken. So far this year, Pump.fun has sold a total of 2,476,697 SOL, with a total value of $404.64 million. DeFiLlama data shows that Pump.fun's revenue in the past 30 days reached $31.94 million. If all these SOL have not been sold, it may announce that it will inject them into the PUMP pool or issue them as rewards for users providing liquidity for PUMP.

Secondly, the core FUD regarding Pump.fun is that its token may have no practical value. However, previously, Pump.fun founder Alon stated that the vision of pump.fun is to create a Solana-native platform, and the PUMP token will empower creators to control finances. He also mentioned that future development directions for Pump.fun include a revenue-sharing mechanism for creators, further investment and focus on Pump.fun's live streaming features, and team expansion through recruitment and strategic acquisitions, with the first acquisition announcement coming soon.

All of these could constitute potential good news for the PUMP token, as these developments indicate that Pump.fun is transitioning from a single meme launch platform to a social platform similar to TikTok and Facebook, with the distinction of being token-driven.

All these signals could help long-term holders build confidence, choosing to buy after the PUMP token is panic-sold, and joining the collective rebound of altcoins led by ETH this week. The market sentiment may warm up, and investors' valuation ceiling for Pump.fun may also increase.

Price Surge at Opening Explodes Short Sellers, Then Continues to Decline

The divergence in the issuance of tokens by Pump.fun is also unprecedented. There are many FUD voices in the Chinese-speaking community, but overseas players continue to be optimistic. Additionally, many players who are not optimistic about the PUMP token may short before the opening, so the second market generally believes that the ideal scenario is for PUMP to rise after opening, exploding short sellers, and then the price continues to decline.

The possibility of a price surge at opening comes partly from pure pre-opening contract trading games and partly from players who genuinely FOMO into the PUMP token. Chinese KOL 0xSun stated that "overseas KOLs like zAnsem and Izebel are very optimistic about PUMP. Some foreigners are even afraid they won't be able to grab it during the public sale, so they opened long contracts in advance. The VC's $720 million investment at a $4 billion valuation also proves that this price has a certain rationality." He also anticipates that the PUMP public sale will be completed relatively quickly, while predicting that PUMP will not encounter any issues until opening, and then rise by 40-80% after the spot opening, followed by a decline, making everyone happy.

Another Chinese KOL, Hanbalongwang, also expressed that "overseas players are very FOMO, opening long positions at a premium, fearing they won't be able to grab it." According to market information, three hours before the public sale, the pre-opening price on Hyperliquid and the pre-opening price on Binance had a price difference of 5%.

The final outcome of this scenario is that after a short-term FOMO in the market, it will still return to rationality, believing that Pump.fun is not worth a $4 billion valuation. Coupled with the founder's previous statement that "pre-sale is a scam," the market's trust in it has almost been exhausted, making it reasonable for it to become the Otherside monkey of the meme era.

Supporting this scenario, Chinese KOL 0xSun also shared his operations, stating, "The original plan was to invest $2 million and hedge $1 million, but due to single order limits, I finally put in a total of $1.5 million. I have hedged $1 million at the position of $0.0054. If the contract reaches above $0.008 during the opening period, I will fully hedge and go short. If the negative fee rate is maximized, I will close the short in advance. If everything goes smoothly and I complete the arbitrage, with a 35% increase, the profit margin on 1x margin will be 17.5%, and even if I leave 4x margin, there will still be a 7% profit margin."

These are the two scenarios for the PUMP token after the opening. Which one do you lean towards?

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