Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Waking up to see Bitcoin has surged to 117K, and Ethereum has touched 3K, it's crazy! And today is Friday, TACO is stirring things up again, with tariffs being added chaotically, yet the market is not falling but rising, even hitting new highs. I bet Trump thinks he’s a god right now, shouting that the wolf is coming every day.

The US stock market has also seen a surprise surge, no buildup, just a direct push. Once Bitcoin stabilized at 112K, the market started to rise without giving you a chance to react. Yesterday, over 400 million dollars in shorts were liquidated between 113.6K and 116K.

In an instant, negative premium turned into a positive premium of 254 dollars. This surge is not driven by bulls; it’s the bears who lit the fire themselves, burning all the way to the ceiling. You say you look at charts and see a risk-reward ratio for shorts? The market doesn’t recognize charts; it recognizes who gets liquidated first.

The current issue is that those who are bearish are still stubbornly insisting that the charts look bad and the trend has reversed, but in reality, it’s just that their short positions haven’t closed; they refuse to admit defeat. Some are even taking positions early, interpreting bullish charts as bearish. Let’s be rational; don’t let your positions dictate your thinking.

Currently, the bears have been squeezed quite a bit, and there are only two expectations left. One is that no one dares to short anymore, the fuel is gone, and prices will oscillate at high levels or even reverse sharply.

The second is that some are still unconvinced and continue to short, adding more liquidity, and next week there could be another surge leading to more liquidations. The more people want to catch the bottom or anticipate a pullback to buy, the more the market wants to blow them up.

Let’s talk about the key point: never blindly go long before the spot market moves. This current wave is purely a contract-driven surge, with the spot market lagging behind, and the premium has been halved, indicating that the main players don’t want to take high positions.

If the spot buying interest comes in later, fine, we can continue to look at 120K and 140K without fear. But if the spot doesn’t follow, or even sells off… then this wave from 74K might just be reaching its peak.

So my judgment is very clear now: if the premium doesn’t recover, I won’t go long. It’s not that the market lacks space; it lacks fuel. Would you dare to say a car without gas can still race? Stop kidding!

Once again, as long as you are bearish and shorting, the market can rise. You start to get greedy, thinking about catching the bottom and going all in, then the pullback will come. So don’t rush to go long, and don’t rush to short; it’s a matter of who can wait longer. When most people are one-sided, the market loves to go the opposite way.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 120000

First Resistance Level: 118000

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 115200

First Support Level: 112000

Yesterday, two long positions near 110500 and 112200 respectively gained 1500 points and 2800 points, with no short positions taken.

The current high point below 118K serves as a recent new high, and the upper shadow in this area has formed short-term resistance. If a consolidation occurs after the rise, whether 115K to 115.2K can stabilize is key; if it holds, it will continue to push upward.

Currently, Bitcoin is still in an effective upward trend channel, and we should pay attention to whether the price remains above the trend line during the day. The RSI indicator shows it is currently in the overbought zone, and a moderate adjustment may be needed before further rises.

The first resistance at 118K is currently the area of historical highs, and it is recommended to watch whether the lows are raised in smaller cycles; if it stabilizes, it will further test 120K.

The second resistance at 120K is a psychological barrier for the market, and profit-taking may occur here. This could be accompanied by some adjustments and is an important mid-term focus point.

The first support in the 115K~115.2K range is the key support area for stabilization after the current pullback. Whether it can continue to strengthen in the short term depends on whether this range can hold.

The second support at 112K, if adjustments intensify, should not be broken; if it can stabilize around 114K, it would be a more ideal healthy adjustment.

7.11 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in the 112000-113000 range if it doesn’t break, Target: 115200-118000

Short Entry Reference: If it breaks below 112000 again and fails to rebound, a light short position can be taken, Target looking for 1000-1500 points

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize shorts, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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