Event Review ⚡️

In the past period, the ETH market has experienced a round of intense fluctuations. From market regulation and macroeconomic signals to significant inflows of institutional funds, the overall market atmosphere has clearly shifted towards an increased risk appetite. Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's high interest rates in the morning session, warming up market expectations for easing policies; subsequently, institutional funds entered the market one after another, with ETF fund movements and large buy orders from exchanges releasing positive signals, providing strong support for the rapid rise in Ethereum prices. Meanwhile, some retail investors began to take profits, leading to a situation of price oscillation at high levels.

Timeline ⏰

• 01:30: Trump publicly criticized the current interest rate policy, releasing expectations for rate cuts, and initial easing signals emerged, laying the foundation for attracting funds to risk assets.
• 02:00: ETH price oscillated around $2660, marking the starting point of this round of market fluctuations. Market sentiment gradually strengthened due to macro easing signals and expectations of institutional participation.
• 02:09: ETH quickly broke through the $2700 mark, with OKX-ETH/USDT data showing a 1.24% increase within just 5 minutes, indicating a rapid strengthening of buying power.
• 03:45: Driven by continuous institutional funds, ETH rose to $2796, with a cumulative increase of about 5.08%, showing sustained strong buying.
• 04:15: After a sharp rise, ETH price fell back to $2753.56, as some funds took profits, increasing market volatility.

Reason Analysis 🔍

Macroeconomic Policy Shifts to Easing
Recently, there have been frequent reports that some members of the Federal Reserve are considering the possibility of initiating rate cuts after observing improvements in inflation and employment data, while Trump explicitly stated that current interest rates are too high, hinting at room for rate cuts. The expectation of easing policies has rapidly increased the overall risk appetite in the market, leading to more funds flowing into high-risk assets, including ETH, thus triggering rapid price fluctuations.

Significant Inflows of Institutional Funds
Since the news broke about institutions actively positioning in Ethereum and other crypto assets, large amounts of funds have continuously flowed into the market. There have been signs of net inflows of ETF funds, large-scale buy orders from exchanges, and inter-institutional fund movements. These funds have not only driven a short-term surge in prices but have also significantly changed the market liquidity structure, enhancing market activity and buying power.

Technical Analysis 📈

This technical analysis is based on Binance USDT perpetual ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick data.

• Trend Indicators: The current price is running along the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a strong upward trend; at the same time, all major moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and multi-period EMA) are in a bullish arrangement, with the overall trend still looking bullish.
• Momentum Indicators: The MACD histogram continues to grow, indicating enhanced buying momentum; however, the KDJ has formed a death cross and the indicator is in the overbought zone, suggesting potential short-term correction risks.
• Volume Observation: Although the total network explosion orders reached $20 million in the past hour, the overall trading volume has decreased compared to historical highs, indicating a slight cooling of market enthusiasm; meanwhile, both short-term and medium-term trading volumes are on the rise, showing that institutional entry and retail trading are demonstrating their strengths in different cycles.
• OBV Indicator: Continues to break through previous highs, with buying power remaining strong, supporting a long-term bullish logic.

Market Outlook 🌟

From the current market situation, ETH has not shaken its overall bullish structure after a brief correction. Expectations for easing policies and continued institutional involvement may continue to support future trends. However, the technical overbought signals and some profit-taking also remind investors of potential adjustment risks in the short term. In the medium to long term, if macro data and market funds continue to support, ETH is expected to consolidate at high levels and seek new opportunities for upward movement. Investors are advised to keep an eye on macro policy dynamics and the flow of large institutional funds, cautiously positioning themselves in the market oscillations, managing risks, and building positions step by step.

Overall, this phase of the ETH market fully reflects the intense fluctuations brought about by macro easing expectations and the catalysis of institutional funds. In the face of high-level oscillations and potential technical corrections, investors need to capture upward opportunities while managing their positions and risks reasonably.

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