After reviewing the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, I won't say much more, but the most concerning issue for everyone is the interest rate cut. Most committee members have a cautious and dovish stance, believing there will still be one to several opportunities for rate cuts in 2025, provided that inflation continues to decline, economic activity slows down, and the impact of tariffs is not significant.

A minority of committee members are more dovish and are prepared to cut rates at any time, explicitly mentioning that a rate cut could happen at the next meeting (in July), but this is not guaranteed. The premise is that the data for June and July continues to trend towards a soft landing, meaning inflation continues to decline and economic activity does not slow down.

The hawkish view is also in the minority, choosing to hold steady because inflation remains stubborn, short-term inflation expectations are still high, there are concerns that the market may relax too early, and they believe economic resilience is stronger than the market anticipates, so they are not in a hurry to act.

The FOMC consists of 19 members, of which 12 can vote, and 7 participate in discussions but do not vote. The final decision is determined by the statements of those 12 voting members. According to my personal estimate, there are about 7-9 members with a neutral to dovish stance, about 3-4 who are purely dovish, including 2 who should be Bowman and Waller, and about 2-3 who are purely hawkish.

If we look at it this way, as long as inflation can slightly decrease in June and July, the majority of members agreeing to a rate cut in September should be in favor. If the unemployment rate rises in June and July and exceeds 4.3%, the majority agreeing to a rate cut in September should also be in favor.

If inflation continues to rise and the unemployment rate remains low or below 4.2%, the decision to cut rates in September will still be a gamble.

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