The main reason for the slight market rebound today is that Trump has once again executed TACO. Previously, he stated that he would absolutely not extend the signing of tariffs, but this time it has been postponed from July 9 to August 1. From the current situation, it seems that at least one major trading country that is difficult to negotiate with has not been confirmed, or it may be related to the Federal Reserve.

The possibility of the European Union is low. Although progress has been slow before, recent signals have been relatively positive. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is also basically stable, with no obvious cracks seen. The biggest uncertainty may still be China. China is currently not included in the list of 14 countries, and there is no public announcement of tariffs, so it is very likely that a separate arrangement is in play, and the specific tariff plan may still be in negotiation.

Another factor that cannot be ignored is the Federal Reserve. Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" has been confirmed, and tariffs were originally planned to be implemented. If these two policies are launched simultaneously, market expectations for inflation will rise rapidly, and the pressure for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will increase, which will reduce market risk appetite.

Therefore, it is very likely that Trump will use this month to finalize the selection of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, thereby creating contradictions and pressure within the Federal Reserve, while externally stimulating investors' risk appetite, which can offset the pressure brought by tariffs.

As for Bitcoin, there is not much to say. Data-wise, everything is still normal, and there are no signs of systemic risk. As mentioned yesterday, in the broader direction, US stocks and $BTC are still highly correlated. As long as there are no major issues with US stocks, the stability of BTC will also be relatively high.

Currently, support and structure are both very stable, and the market's game still depends on tariffs and monetary policy.

Data address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

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