In the frequently turbulent global capital markets of 2025, the direction of U.S. trade policy once again casts a shadow over the cryptocurrency industry. Externally, the competition surrounding high technology, energy, and cross-border finance is becoming increasingly intense; internally, the policy swings brought about by the approaching elections leave the crypto industry in a dilemma of uncertainty.
In recent months, the U.S. has continued to tighten tariffs and supply chain policies against China and other emerging economies, with restrictions on advanced chips, AI computing power, and cross-border capital flows gradually spilling over into the Web3 and crypto asset sectors. On one hand, these policies are intended to "protect" domestic technology and capital security, but in the face of a globalized crypto network, the barrier effect is tearing apart the existing liquidity foundation.
Many may wonder, what direct relationship does the U.S. trade war have with cryptocurrencies? On the surface, crypto assets are decentralized and naturally transcend national borders. However, the reality is that from exchanges to mining farms, from computing power to stablecoins, there is still a heavy reliance on highly centralized supply chains and compliance systems. Especially in the past year, while the U.S. government has been advocating for financial innovation, it has simultaneously launched compliance reviews on stablecoins, cross-border payments, and on-chain privacy projects, causing many crypto companies to feel the "invisible regulatory wall."
One of the direct impacts of the current trade tensions is the uncertainty surrounding cross-border capital flows. In particular, U.S. controls on the flow of dollars abroad have led to higher audit and freezing risks for dollar stablecoins like USDT and USDC in global on-chain payments. Coupled with the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) continuously advancing VASP (Virtual Asset Service Provider) compliance standards, many exchanges have had to strengthen KYC and restrict anonymous transactions, which has inadvertently raised operational costs and severed the "borderless attribute" that the crypto world prides itself on.
On the other hand, U.S. policy direction is also affecting the mining and computing power landscape. Export controls on computing power and technological blockades against major mining machine producing countries like China are prompting a global dispersion of mining to regions such as Central Asia, Latin America, and Africa. However, new powerhouses in computing often come with unstable electricity and policies, bringing additional risks. Compared to the past few years when large-scale mining farms were concentrated in North America or regions in China with surplus hydropower, mining is now becoming increasingly decentralized. While this aligns with the spirit of decentralization, it also intensifies the struggle between regulation and network stability.
More subtly, the internal political divisions in the U.S. leave the crypto industry at a loss. On one hand, some emerging candidates vocally support "crypto-friendly" policies, attempting to attract young voters and entrepreneurial groups; on the other hand, regulatory agencies are tightening their grip in areas such as stablecoins, DeFi, and DEX, with policies swinging back and forth, leaving entrepreneurs, investors, and even traditional institutions in a state of watchful waiting.
The underlying logic here is clear: in the eyes of the U.S., the crypto industry is both a testing ground for financial innovation and a potential channel for capital outflow, as well as a bargaining chip in geopolitical games. Externally, it can serve as a tool for sanctions, while internally, it can be tightened or loosened to serve different political narratives. In other words, trade policy and financial policy have never truly been separate, and the crypto industry is navigating this gap.
It is worth noting that the uncertainty of global markets regarding U.S. policies is giving rise to new hedging and shifts. Some crypto exchanges, mining companies, and project teams are accelerating their business transfers to emerging markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. For instance, recently, places like the UAE, Hong Kong, and Singapore have been issuing more compliance licenses, attempting to attract funds and projects that have been tightened by Europe and the U.S. Leading platforms like Gate, OKX, and Binance are emphasizing a globalized multipolar layout to hedge against the risks of single market policies.
On the user side, this policy risk is also quietly changing people's choices: more and more individuals are beginning to reassess decentralized wallets, cross-chain bridges, DIDs, and on-chain anonymous trading tools, attempting to reduce the risks of being blocked by a single jurisdiction. On the other hand, capital flight on-chain and gray arbitrage are also on the rise, which means that if regulation continues to tighten, "on-chain resistance" could lead to more complex black and gray market issues, making the tug-of-war between compliance and freedom even sharper.
For the crypto industry, what is truly worth reflecting on is how to find a new balance between global compliance and decentralization in the face of the policy shadow centered around the U.S. Simply shouting "decentralization" is not enough to fend off geopolitical risks; rather, it may leave ordinary users vulnerable due to a lack of governance and legal protection. Conversely, overly relying on the compliance dividends of a single market could easily lead to being swayed by political winds.
In the coming years, the global crypto asset stage may present a "tripolar" landscape: one pole is a high-intensity compliance zone led by the U.S., with deep integration of compliance, institutionalization, and traditional finance but high thresholds and strict reviews; another pole is emerging markets actively embracing new technologies, providing relatively loose ground for implementation, but also accompanied by instability in the rule of law and infrastructure; and the third pole is a technology-driven pure on-chain native world, striving to maintain the spark of "borderless experimentation" through privacy chains, cross-chain protocols, and AI+DeFi.
This game is far from over. It is certain that U.S. trade policy remains the most unavoidable scale for the global crypto industry. On one side is the world's largest pool of capital and technological influence, and on the other side is increasingly tightening geopolitical protectionism. The next steps to take are not only questions that enterprises and investors need to answer, but also a fateful exam that the entire crypto world must face.
Related: Strategy skipped Bitcoin (BTC) purchases last week, reporting an unrealized loss of $14 billion in the second quarter and announcing a new $4.2 billion fundraising plan.
Original article: “Under the Shadow of U.S. Trade Policy, Where is Crypto Heading Next?”
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