Hong Kong, as an international financial center, is becoming the focal point for the competition over stablecoin licenses. The "Stablecoin Regulation" will officially take effect on August 1, 2025, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will begin accepting license applications. However, the scarcity of licenses stands in stark contrast to the enthusiasm of the applying institutions. It is expected that there will only be "single-digit" license slots available, yet dozens of companies are competing fiercely for them.

Scarcity of Licenses, Gathering of Giants

According to industry insiders, the scarcity of Hong Kong stablecoin licenses has made them highly sought after in the market. Currently, institutions such as JD Coin Chain, the Standard Chartered-Anxin-HKT consortium, and Yuan Coin Innovation have publicly announced their participation in the application process, while Ant International and Ant Digital Technology have also expressed their willingness to expand their business. It is understood that more than 40 companies have clearly submitted applications, with dozens more in the consultation or preparation stages. Alex Zuo, Senior Vice President of digital asset custody and wallet platform Cobo, stated, "The competitors are basically the largest financial institutions and internet companies in China, and small to medium-sized institutions may not even qualify to submit applications."

In addition, some large Chinese enterprises engaged in supply chain-related businesses are also actively preparing, increasing their recruitment of blockchain talent to meet the strict requirements for license applications. However, the scarcity of license slots leaves many small enterprises with little hope. Industry insiders point out that some small companies are speculating on the stablecoin concept, attempting to attract market attention through announcements, but often lack the actual execution capability to stand out in the competition.

Application Scenarios and Market Drivers of Stablecoins

The surge in stablecoins stems from their potential in cross-border payments and asset circulation. Alex Zuo introduced that the main entities exploring the use of stablecoins can be divided into two categories:

1. Cross-Border Payment Companies: These companies may not necessarily issue stablecoins, but their upstream and downstream clients already have demands for stablecoin or digital currency transactions. Traditional trading solutions have become inadequate for business expansion needs, and companies need to generate addresses through wallet providers and connect with multiple acquirers to achieve the conversion between fiat and digital currencies at the lowest cost.

2. Stablecoin Issuance and Circulation: Large internet companies feel the urgency of the market and are applying for licenses to seize the opportunity. The issuance of stablecoins not only involves payment functions but also provides possibilities for asset management and value-added services.

However, traditional enterprises face many challenges in transitioning from Web2 to Web3. Payment institutions are relatively weak in security and understanding of blockchain technology, needing to lower the technical threshold through "Chain Abstraction." For example, in the cryptocurrency field, paying Gas Fees (transaction fees) for transfers is the norm, but for traditional enterprises, this concept and operational threshold are quite high. Intermediary institutions need to optimize technology to simplify payment processes based on stablecoins.

Reality and Limitations of Stablecoins

Despite high expectations for stablecoins in the market, with some believing they will "reconstruct the global monetary system," industry experts remain cautious. Qiao Yide, Vice President of the Shanghai Development Research Foundation, stated that stablecoins, anchored to sovereign currencies, are essentially an extension of fiat currency functions and cannot overturn the existing monetary system. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report also pointed out that stablecoins experience price fluctuations due to different issuers, lacking singularity, elasticity, and completeness, making it difficult to become a pillar of the future monetary system.

Qiao Yide further analyzed that the efficiency of stablecoins in cross-border payments may be overestimated. Actual costs include acquisition costs (fees for converting fiat to stablecoins), on-chain transaction Gas Fees, withdrawal costs (fees for converting stablecoins back to fiat), KYC/AML compliance costs, and foreign exchange fluctuation losses, with overall costs potentially approaching 0.8% to 1%, far exceeding the advertised "extremely low levels."

Prospects for Offshore RMB Stablecoins

Recently, the call for "offshore RMB stablecoins" has been growing louder. Qiao Yide believes that if promoting RMB stablecoins, it is essential to focus on strategy, distinguishing between short-term and long-term, domestic and foreign, onshore and offshore differences. Specific recommendations include:

1. Breakthrough from Offshore: Relying on Hong Kong's pioneering efforts, build an offshore financial system that matches international financial centers, and consider domestic promotion only after the capital account is fully opened.

2. Focus on Payment Functions: RMB stablecoins have great potential in cross-border payments (especially bypassing SWIFT) and regional cooperation (such as the Mainland-Hong Kong "Payment Link") scenarios, which can develop in synergy with digital RMB to promote RMB internationalization.

3. Pragmatic Advancement: The development of stablecoins should focus on actual application needs, avoiding excessive foresight, and ensuring compatibility with the existing financial system.

The competition for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is not only a contest of capital and technology but also a microcosm of global financial innovation. The scarce license slots have attracted numerous industry giants, highlighting the enormous potential of stablecoins in cross-border payments and asset management. However, intense competition, technological complexity, and high regulatory thresholds also pose significant challenges for enterprises. In the future, the development of stablecoins must find a balance between compliance, technological innovation, and practical application to truly inject new vitality into the global financial system.

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