Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.32 trillion, with BTC accounting for 64.6%, which is $2.14 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $255.3 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.83%, of which USDT accounts for 62.45%.
This week, BTC's price has shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $107,945; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, currently priced at $2,512.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: PENGU with a 7-day increase of 49.38%, BONK with a 7-day increase of 27.73%, PLUME with a 7-day increase of 36.98%, and MOODENG with a 7-day increase of 31.39%.
This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $770 million; the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $219.6 million.
On July 4, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 68 (higher than last week), with the sentiment this week being: 2 days neutral, 5 days greedy.
Market Forecast:
This week, stablecoins continue to be issued, with net inflows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. BTC and ETH are both range-bound. The RSI index is at 47.21, indicating neutrality. The Fear & Greed Index is primarily greedy. This week, the U.S. passed the "Great Beautiful Act" for tax cuts and spending, and the non-farm payroll data for June was better than market expectations, with a 78.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July.
Next week, BTC's price is expected to range between $106,000 and $111,000. Attention should be paid to the U.S. tariff agreement on July 9, which will be a significant event this summer; currently, it seems that the impact on crypto will not be greater than in February, but it is still worth monitoring. The wave of tokenization in U.S. stocks is gaining momentum, and Hotcoin has launched this section.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On June 29, the Trump family's crypto project WLFI reported on X platform that its stablecoin USD1 had a trading volume of $1.25 billion in the past 24 hours, setting a new historical high, second only to Tether (USDT) and USDC;
On June 30, Cathay Securities released a research report stating that more Hong Kong brokerages will layout virtual asset businesses in the future. Additionally, the market is gradually entering a performance window, and brokerage sector profits are expected to exceed expectations. In the context of a stable stock market, opportunities for undervalued and underweighted blue-chip stocks are recommended, with non-bank blue-chip stocks shifting from "marginal thinking of fundamentals" to "overall risk-return ratio thinking." Especially under the recent policies encouraging red-chip and H-shares to return to A-shares, non-bank blue-chip stocks in Hong Kong are benefiting more;
On June 30, REX-OSPREY's CEO announced that a Solana ETF supporting staking will start trading on Wednesday;
On June 30, digital broker Robinhood (HOOD) announced on Monday that it will expand its crypto business through a series of new initiatives, including developing its own blockchain network based on Arbitrum and launching tokenized stock trading. The company today launched a tokenized stock product based on the Ethereum Layer 2 network Arbitrum for European users, covering over 200 U.S. stocks and ETFs, supporting all-day trading on weekdays. Robinhood stated that this move will upgrade its European crypto application to a "crypto-driven all-in-one investment platform";
On July 1, Bloomberg reported that a cryptocurrency company associated with U.S. President Donald Trump's family raised $220 million to purchase Bitcoin and digital asset mining equipment. This company, named American Bitcoin, has supporters including Trump's son Eric Trump. According to documents submitted by the company's major shareholder Hut 8 Corp., American Bitcoin issued new shares to private investors last Friday, with shares worth about $10 million sold in Bitcoin rather than in U.S. dollars;
On July 1, according to CNBC, stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL.K) is applying to establish a national trust bank in the U.S.;
On July 1, Amber Group's crypto financial institution service and solution provider Amber International (NASDAQ: AMBR) announced that it has successfully signed a private placement subscription agreement totaling $25.5 million, with participation from Mile Green, Harvest Capital, Pantera Capital, Choco Up, and others;
On July 2, according to Cryptoslate, listed companies purchased a total of 245,510 Bitcoins in the first half of 2025, more than double the amount purchased by ETFs during the same period (118,424 BTC);
On July 2, according to The Block, a new organization called the Ethereum Community Foundation (ECF) has been established to support institutional-level adoption of Ethereum infrastructure and ultimately drive up ETH prices, as announced by Ethereum core developer Zak Cole on the X platform;
On July 3, The Block reported that the Trump family has profited about $620 million from cryptocurrency projects in recent months, accounting for nearly 10% of the Trump family's net worth of $6.4 billion;
On July 3, a hearing for the full committee on cryptocurrency market structure will be held next Wednesday, July 9, with Ripple's CEO in attendance;
On July 4, market news reported that Trump's tax cut and spending bill ("Beautiful Act") passed in the House of Representatives;
On July 4, on-chain detective ZachXBT posted on social media that UAE authorities have detained Ildar Ilham, the founder of the decentralized finance protocol WhiteRock Finance, accusing him of committing a $30 million fraud through the gambling platform ZKasino.
Macroeconomics
On July 1, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart released the latest forecast for the approval probability of crypto spot ETFs by the end of 2025, predicting a new wave of ETF approvals in the second half of 2025. Among them, the approval probability for combination/index funds, Litecoin, SOL, and XRP is 95%, while Dogecoin, HBAR, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche are expected to have a 90% approval probability. SUI is expected to have a 60% approval probability, while Tron/TRX and Pengu are expected to have a 50% approval probability;
On July 3, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, with expectations of 110,000, and the previous value was revised from 139,000 to 144,000;
On July 3, the U.S. unemployment rate for June recorded at 4.1%, with data unexpectedly declining. The U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs in June, better than market expectations;
On July 4, U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% to 70% and from 10% to 20% on different countries. Countries will start paying these tariffs on August 1. Letters regarding tariffs will begin to be sent out this Friday, with 10 to 12 countries expected to receive relevant notifications on Friday;
On July 2, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 78.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 8.9%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 72.3% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 18.8%.
ETF
According to statistics, from June 30 to July 4, the net inflow for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $770 million; as of July 4, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.288 billion, currently holding $20.146 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $76.297 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $138.086 billion.
The net inflow for U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $219.6 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Upcoming Events
Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held from August 28 to 29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre;
WebX Asia 2025 will be held from August 25 to 26, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan;
TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held from October 1 to 2, 2025, in Singapore.
Project Progress
- Aethir Edge Token Economics 2.0 will launch on July 13, introducing a staking-driven reward mechanism, where users need to stake ATH to participate in rewards, divided into Bronze, Silver, and Gold tiers, with a maximum reward of 240 ATH per day.
Important Events
The deadline for U.S.-EU tariff negotiations has been extended to July 9;
On July 8 at 12:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision;
On July 9 at 9:30, China's June CPI year-on-year;
On July 9 at 10:00, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision;
On July 10 at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 5 (in ten thousand).
Token Unlocking
EigenLayer (EIGEN) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on July 9, worth approximately $1.45 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply;
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 15.19 million tokens on July 9, worth $2.37 million, accounting for 0.39% of the circulating supply;
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 50 million tokens on July 9, worth approximately $8.09 million, accounting for 1.92% of the circulating supply;
Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.25 million tokens on July 11, worth approximately $10.55 million, accounting for 1.31% of the circulating supply;
Optimism (OP) will unlock 4.47 million tokens on July 11, worth approximately $2.4 million, accounting for 0.26% of the circulating supply;
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on July 12, worth approximately $49.99 million, accounting for 1.75% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global cryptocurrency investors. We have built a "trend analysis + value discovery + real-time tracking" integrated service system, offering in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessments of potential projects, and round-the-clock market volatility monitoring. Combined with our weekly live strategy sessions of "Hotcoin Selected" and daily news updates from "Blockchain Today," we provide precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, collectively seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a complete understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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