⚡️Today everyone is talking about how Musk is so angry about the Inflation Reduction Act that he wants to start a party, and many believe that old Elon is finally stepping into the election arena, which could potentially disrupt the political landscape in the U.S.

First, let’s state the conclusion: it’s basically impossible!

Now, let me share my understanding—

1⃣ The U.S. party structure has become severely class-rigid

In fact, third parties have not been rare in U.S. history, and they have all failed. The fundamental reason is that the U.S. party system has experienced over 150 years of polarization:

1) The winner-takes-all electoral system means that third parties will always struggle to break through the congressional structure. Even if you have a 10% approval rating, as long as you lose to the second place in every district, you won’t get a single seat.

2) Historical experience is also unfriendly: from the Green Party, the Libertarian Party to the Forward Party, they have all been stuck in the awkward position of having a lot of influence in rhetoric but very little in votes.

In other words, even if @elonmusk starts the American Party, it is almost impossible in the short term to threaten the congressional foundation of the Democratic and Republican parties.

2⃣ Who would join the American Party?

Despite Musk having a net worth of $400 billion and 220 million Twitter users, let’s analyze—

First, MAGA supporters definitely won’t join, and LGBT groups won’t either. The 42% of the Black minority likely belongs to the Democratic territory, so they won’t join;

Then there’s the business sector; traditional enterprises and the military-industrial complex will likely ignore him, and tech companies see Musk as a competitor. At such a time, who would be willing to take the risk and be the first to step out? So they probably won’t join either.

Calculating this way, aside from the loudmouths on Twitter, there isn’t really a reliable base to count on, and they can only aim for swing states.

But you know, relying solely on swing states basically means no chance in the general election.

Overall, the possibility of the American Party becoming the third largest party is essentially zero, especially since parties like the National Republican Party, which started with a strong foundation, were divided and absorbed by the two parties in just over a decade, let alone a party starting from scratch like the American Party.

3⃣ What Musk really wants is not to be president, but bargaining power

I believe this is Musk’s core and most critical objective—

Musk is not fundamentally a political ideologue but rather a transactional super individual. His call for starting a party is actually aimed at gaining greater bargaining power for himself and the platforms he controls (X, Tesla, Starlink, etc.) within U.S. politics.

I speculate that his ultimate goal might be:

1) To create panic and leverage through the act of starting a party, influencing the Republican or Democratic parties to align with him during the campaign;

2) Even before 2028, to provide the “deciding vote” influence to support a certain candidate, playing the role of a kingmaker;

3) Ultimately reaching a political tacit agreement: you protect my business empire, and I won’t encroach on your power territory.

Thus, all of this determines that for political novice Musk, the best way to achieve this is not to become president, but to: go to Congress, where a small investment can yield great returns!

As long as he has two or three senators and seven or eight representatives, he can become a key force influencing U.S. politics. Of course, during this process, he will definitely face joint suppression from both parties, which is bound to be difficult and tortuous.

Being a disruptor should be the best and only path for Musk and the American Party!

(Image from: Jin Shi)

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