I personally believe that the probability of the Big Beautiful Act being passed in the end is still quite high.

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Phyrex
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9 hours ago

I personally believe that the probability of the Big Beautiful Bill being passed is still quite high, with the most likely outcome being some modifications in certain details. However, it's hard to say about the timing; Trump is also in a difficult position right now, as he can't fully unify opinions within his party, and there are serious divisions among House Republicans.

Currently, more than 20 Republican lawmakers have expressed opposition or hesitation. The House only holds a slim majority for its version. If they support the Senate version now, they can only afford a maximum of 3 opposing votes; otherwise, the vote will fail.

Therefore, I am not very confident that it can be fully passed today, but I also think that the impact on the market won't be significant. The focus may still be on today's non-farm payroll data.

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