Source: Uweb Live Private Class
Content Organized by: Peter_Techub News
On the evening of July 2 at 20:30, the highly anticipated 173rd episode of the Uweb live sharing class was broadcast as scheduled. The theme of this episode was "New Highs for the Nasdaq, Will Bitcoin Break New Highs Too?" Uweb President Yu Jianing teamed up with on-chain data analysis expert Linda Zheng to present an in-depth analysis of the trends in the cryptocurrency market. From an industry perspective, this live broadcast combined on-chain data, macroeconomic analysis, and policy insights, providing investors with systematic market insights. Linda's precise on-chain indicators and unique market judgments perfectly blended theory with practice, delivering an extremely enlightening sharing session, serving as a barometer for the Web3 investment field.
Weekly Report Interpretation: BTC Market in a Tug of War, Awaiting Change
In the weekly report interpretation, Shao Feng analyzed the BTC market trends, pointing out that it is currently a critical decision-making period, with on-chain data showing "disruption" and mixed bullish and bearish signals. The global momentum radar chart indicated that after BTC broke down and turned cold last week, it showed signs of recovery and an upward trend, coinciding with rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to improved market sentiment. The on-chain liquidation curve suggested that profit-taking broke a one-and-a-half-month downward trend, with capital enthusiasm rebounding, potentially leading to a short-term rebound. However, the lagging on-chain data limits predictions, and it is necessary to observe whether profits will continue next week. If profits rise, prices may increase; if they fall, it could indicate a false breakout, facing the risk of a pullback. The liquidity pulse chart showed a $2 billion increase in stablecoin issuance, but the inflow of funds into exchanges did not significantly increase, and trading volume rebounded limitedly, indicating weak purchasing power. The UTXO energy band revealed that the concentration of high-position chips reached 26%, with historical highs suggesting a potential surge or drop within one to two weeks. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) remains in a downward channel, with short-term holders' profit rates not breaking through, indicating a risk of pullback; if it falls below 98,000, a rapid decline may occur. In terms of off-chain data, BTC ETF net inflows reached $2.21 billion, reflecting continued institutional optimism, similar to the sideways period from July to September last year, with bullish sentiment unchanged. However, the greed-fear index is relatively low, and expectations for interest rate cuts have fallen from 22%, leading the market to become more rational. The macro data on July 2-3 (unemployment rate, non-farm employment) may become a turning point. Shao Feng suggested paying attention to macro data and on-chain trends to comprehensively judge market direction.
Opening Sharing: Web3 Moving Towards "Max Adoption"
President Yu Jianing opened by analyzing the current state of the Web3 industry, presenting a scenario of "internal cold and external heat": insufficient funds and low confidence within the circle, while enthusiasm outside the circle is high, with traditional finance (such as banks and brokerages) frequently inviting sharing, increasing industry attention. He mentioned that at the ETH CT in Cannes, Robinhood released a plan for on-chain US stocks, enabling 24/7 trading through tokenization and perpetual contracts, signaling new inflows of traffic and capital. Yu Jianing predicted that by 2030, the market value of stablecoins could reach $3.7 trillion, supporting a total market value of Web3 assets of $30 trillion, with BTC potentially accounting for several trillion, and a market value of $5 trillion achievable this year. This is a critical accumulation period, possibly the last wave of a bull market, and he advised maintaining a market presence, embracing ETF securitization and RWA tokenization innovations, while being cautious of future risks. He asked Linda: Why hasn't BTC broken through despite the Nasdaq hitting new highs? Will it follow the Nasdaq to peak, or will it correct independently? How does market differentiation affect BTC and digital asset trends? What is the significance of the sideways state?
Nasdaq New High, Why Hasn't BTC Broken Through?
Linda Zheng analyzed the reasons for the Nasdaq's new high but BTC not breaking through:
Market Logic Differences: The US stock market is driven by macroeconomic factors, PCE inflation, and expectations of interest rate cuts, while BTC is influenced by supply and demand, speculative sentiment, regulation, and on-chain capital flows, which are related but not completely synchronized.
Capital Diversion: The hype around crypto stocks (Circle, Coinbase) and the high liquidity of US stocks attracted funds that could have flowed into BTC ETFs, similar to the sentiment-driven trading of MEME stocks, leading to BTC's sideways movement and significant declines in altcoins.
Short-term Trends: The stablecoin bill expected on July 4 may push BTC to break the resistance level of 110,300, potentially reaching the previous high of 118,000, but due to profit-taking pressure and negative factors (such as delays in Trump tariffs and Japan's interest rate hikes), it may pull back to 98,800 (the cost price for short-term holders) or the concentrated area of 93,000-96,500.
Long-term Outlook (until 2026): The market value of stablecoins may increase from $240 billion to $700 billion, unlocking $14 trillion in buying power, pushing BTC above $150,000, trending towards the narrative of gold market value. Interest rate cuts (1-2 times in September or December, or significant cuts in 2026) will moderately or sharply boost BTC, with institutional control (the US controls about 5 million BTC, accounting for 1/3 of liquidity) strengthening pricing power.
Advice: Short-term profit-taking at 110,000 or bottom-fishing at 98,000-93,000, holding long-term for price increases.
Circle Valuation Logic and Market Performance
Yu Jianing inquired about the reasons for Circle's stock price surge, reasonable valuation range, and whether it was speculative trading. Linda analyzed: Circle (the issuer of USDC, the first stablecoin on US stocks) saw its IPO price rise from $31 to nearly $300 on the first day, with a market value exceeding $60 billion and a trading volume of 46 million shares, but by the end of June, it halved to $180, with a current market value of about $50 billion, indicating a clear overvaluation. Reasons include:
Limited Profit Model: Circle relies on the interest from USDC reserves in government bonds, with an annual yield of 2.7% (lower than the 4.2% of government bonds), and needs to share over 60% of profits with Coinbase, leading to significant cash flow pressure.
Insufficient Market Share: USDC accounts for 25%-40% of the stablecoin market, far below USDT's 70%, lacking a leading position to support high valuations.
Intensifying Competition: Traditional institutions (such as Mastercard and Amazon) plan to issue stablecoins, weakening Circle's market share.
Valuation Forecast: If the stablecoin market expands to trillions, and Circle increases its market share and develops new profit models, its market value could maintain between $40-60 billion, with a stock price of $130-150 as the bottom and a maximum of $250-300 (by 2030). If competition intensifies, regulation tightens, or interest rate cuts weaken yields, the market value may fall to $20 billion, with stock prices dropping to double digits. Linda believes the current valuation bubble is significant and needs to return to rationality.
Can ETH Break 4000?
Yu Jianing focused on ETH trends and the impact of ETH reserve companies similar to MicroStrategy. Linda analyzed based on on-chain data:
- Past: In March, she suggested a large position of 80% BTC and 20% ETH, with small positions fully in ETH, as the rebound strength was greater than BTC. She went long on ETH at $1,482, which rose to $2,852 by April 18, based on MVRV, Pressing Bands, and favorable upgrades on May 8, predicting $1,800 as the bottom, successfully forecasting a rebound to $2,500.
- Short-term: The inverted options data (with mid-term bearish options buying exceeding long-term) indicates that profit supply at 54% has not reached the bottom (below 50%), suggesting a pullback to $1,800-$2,000 (chip gap area), recommending bottom-fishing near $1,900.
- Mid-term: Since April, whales (holding over 1,000 ETH) have increased their positions, with a single-day inflow of 871,000 ETH in mid-June, indicating high control. However, Bitfinex sold a million ETH, combined with Blackrock's $80 million ETH purchase, reflecting the main force raising prices to offload, with a short-term pullback potentially to $1,800.
- Long-term: ETH benefits from stablecoins, RWA, and DeFi (Aave, Uniswap) support, with high recognition in traditional finance, showing bullish prospects for the future but requiring more follow-up capital.
Advice: Observe in the short term, bottom-fish in the mid-term, and remain bullish long-term; breaking 4000 requires more capital inflow.
Interest Rate Cuts, Quantitative Trading, and Altcoin Opportunities
Yu Jianing inquired about the rhythm of interest rate cuts, quantitative trading, and altcoin logic. Linda responded:
Rhythm of Interest Rate Cuts: Cuts are expected in September 2025 or within the year, ruling out delays until March-May 2026. The impact of interest rate cuts on risk assets is limited, while the stablecoin bill directly benefits BTC and ETH.
Quantitative Trading: Fund quant trading requires a $100,000 threshold, with annual returns of 10%-50%. Strategies include funding rate arbitrage, spread arbitrage, and CTA neutral strategies, but returns are difficult during low volatility. Ordinary people can try grid trading, suitable for the consolidation period after BTC's main upward wave (80% of the time), requiring accurate interval judgments, primarily going long, and being cautious of turning point risks.
Altcoins: General increases are difficult, with benefits concentrated in DeFi (Aave, Uniswap) and stablecoin tracks (such as USD1, Lister), as US stocks on-chain require on-chain lending liquidity. Research is necessary; it is not a wealth code.
In-House Sharing: On-Chain Data Analysis and BTC/ETH Trends
Linda shared the on-chain analysis framework:
MVRV: The overall loss of ETH in April (low MVRV) indicated a bottom, later rising to $2,500, historically validated as effective.
Whale Holdings: The movements of BTC and ETH whales (holding over 10 million BTC or 1,000 ETH) reflect trends, with reductions in March and December last year triggering profit-taking, while April's contrary accumulation confirmed the bottom.
Short-term Holder Cost Price: The average cost for buyers within 155 days, with BTC falling below 98,800 triggering retail selling, validated multiple times in 2021 and 2024 as bull-bear turning points, currently serving as critical support.
Chip Distribution: BTC's concentrated area is 93,000-96,500, with 74,000-78,000 being whale entry zones, and 93,000 being high positions for exchange users. BTC Trend: A pullback to 98,800-96,500 in July-August, with a rate cut in September pushing it to 130,000-150,000; if significant cuts and a stablecoin market value of $2 trillion occur by 2026, BTC may exceed $200,000. ETH Trend: A short-term pullback to $1,800-$2,000, with mid-term bullishness due to whale accumulation and DeFi, RWA benefits.
Uweb Course and Event Schedule by Teacher Wei Bin
Hong Kong Web3 Future Wealth Course (RWA Module): July 31 - August 4, 4999 yuan, first single-module registration, focusing on RWA and stablecoin investment and financing, with Teacher Meng Yan debuting RWA token economic theory. Highlights: Detailed explanation of the RWA ecosystem, stablecoin dividends (such as Circle, Coinbase's annualized 10% wealth management), investment logic for Hong Kong and US stocks (crypto stocks similar to crypto circle strategies).
CDA Exam: Fully booked on August 30, with October being the last opportunity to hold a certificate.
Study Tour in the US: August 17-23, need to hurry to apply for a US visa. Wei Bin emphasized Uweb.
Summary and Recommendations
BTC is expected to pull back to 98,800-96,500 in the short term, with a rate cut in September potentially pushing it to 130,000-150,000, and possibly exceeding 200,000 by 2026; ETH may drop to $1,800-$2,000 in the short term, with mid to long-term bullishness; altcoin opportunities are concentrated in DeFi and stablecoin tracks.
Learning Recommendations: Short-term profit-taking at 110,000 or bottom-fishing at 98,000-93,000 for BTC, bottom-fishing near $1,900 for ETH, holding long-term for price increases, and paying attention to RWA and stablecoin tracks. Participate in Uweb courses, obtain the CDA certificate, and seize the opportunity for Web3 "Max Adoption."
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