Bitcoin is about to face a critical double candle close, just a step away from the historical record—can the bulls maintain control?
As the monthly and quarterly closes approach, the liquidity game in the Bitcoin order book continues, laying the groundwork for sudden price fluctuations.
BTC/USD only needs to close at $104,630 in June to set the highest monthly close ever.
With a calm week of U.S. macro data, the market's focus remains on the Federal Reserve after Powell's testimony in Congress.
Bitcoin faces a "critical demand gap," as buying power fails to match the distribution of long-term holders.
Is the Bitcoin bull market down to its last three months?
The timely rise on June 29 has put BTC/USD in a position to set a historic highest weekly close, surpassing $109,000.
Although it ultimately did not materialize, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicate that the weekly trading range remains intact as June and the second quarter come to a close.
As of June 30, when this article was written, BTC/USD has filled the latest "gap" caused by weekend volatility in the Bitcoin futures market of the CME Group.
$BTC has opened up with a small CME gap below. Keep an eye on this area as we've pretty much seen all CME gaps fill at the start of the week, in recent months. pic.twitter.com/QCxBUgShuO
Analyzing the closing price, the price on Bitstamp was around $108,400, with well-known trader Skew attributing the last-minute price strength to "predatory" algorithmic trading bots.
"The game is on, but keep a close eye on liquidity," he summarized in a post on X.
As part of these "games," Skew observed that algorithmic actions pushed the market to a point, even liquidating a $12 million Bitcoin short position before retracting its gains.
"The same entity pushed Bitcoin up two weeks ago, and the next day Bitcoin fell," another trader, BitBull, continued the discussion.
As Cointelegraph reported, the manipulation of order book liquidity by large traders has led to various false breakouts in price in recent months.
With the weekly close failing to set a new all-time high, the other two candles for BTC/USD are now in focus.
The monthly close for June will also determine Bitcoin's price performance for the second quarter, which is currently expected to achieve an astonishing 30% increase.
Even June itself, despite ending with headline-driven volatility, is expected to close "green," according to monitoring resource CoinGlass.
Thus, Bitcoin traders believe this month could serve as a springboard for the next stronger rebound.
17 hours away from locking in another record-breaking monthly close. Broke the January highs last month - retested them this month, and pushed higher once more. July should be even better. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/UAsHi9Vt5Q
To set the highest monthly close ever, Bitcoin's price action only needs to hold at $104,630, leaving bulls with about 2.9% of downside room.
The limits of last-minute volatility may also be determined by the liquidity of the exchange order book.
Monitoring resource Material Indicators noted that there are significant short-term price magnets both above and below current levels.
"Sell order liquidity is concentrated in the $108k - $110k range, while buy order liquidity is distributed down to $98k, which could trigger some volatility in the next 24 - 48 hours," it summarized on X, along with a screenshot of Binance's order book liquidity.
Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan added that despite the prospect of record candle closes, he "expects" another liquidity dip in the future.
The Independence Day holiday has ended a relatively calm week for U.S. macroeconomic data.
Cryptocurrency and risk asset traders can thus pause to reflect, as the unprecedented divergence between Federal Reserve policy and political will remains unresolved.
Despite many Federal Reserve officials and Chairman Powell's steadfast decision not to cut rates, U.S. President Donald Trump continues to publicly criticize their decisions.
This includes calling Powell a "stupid person" and claiming that the Federal Reserve is late in initiating a new round of rate cuts, with Trump even sparking rumors about Powell's dismissal.
In his two-day testimony before Congress last week, Powell told Congress: "At this point, we are in a good position to wait to learn more about where the economy may be headed before considering any adjustments to our policy stance."
Although the market sees almost no chance of a rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the end of July, the latest data from CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a 75% chance of a 0.25% cut at the September meeting.
As Cointelegraph reported, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michaelle Bowman hinted that she would be open to a rate cut in July if the data allows.
Meanwhile, the main focus this week is on the non-farm payroll data on July 3.
As the second quarter ends, long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) are beginning to raise concerns.
Research warns that the reactivation of dormant coins, combined with newly mined supply, currently exceeds buyer demand.
In a "Quicktake" blog post on June 29, the on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant unabashedly described this situation as a "critical demand gap."
"The flow of coins from miners and profit-taking LTHs into the market now exceeds the purchasing volume of new buyers," writer Crazzyblockk stated. "This is a bearish development for two reasons: it directly increases the 'for sale' supply, putting downward pressure on prices. The sell-off by LTHs, often seen as 'smart money,' may indicate that experienced participants believe the market has reached a local peak."
CryptoQuant's apparent demand indicator, which subtracts LTH and newly mined coins from buyer pressure, is now negative on a rolling 30-day basis.
The last recorded negative apparent demand occurred when BTC/USD emerged from multi-month lows below $75,000.
"Therefore, the market is in a fragile state. Any price rebound from here may struggle to overcome this wave of available supply, and market support may be weaker than expected," CryptoQuant summarized. "While not guaranteed, this on-chain signal strongly suggests that caution should be maintained until demand shows clear signs of recovery."
Bitcoin's price action may be just a few months away from its next bull market peak.
Recent comments from well-known trader and analyst Rekt Capital include references to historical price cycle behavior, while suggesting that the peak may be closer than many imagine.
"If Bitcoin is to peak in the bull market of September/October 2025, according to historical halving cycles." He told his followers in a post on X. "That leaves just 2-3 months."
Rekt Capital noted that in 2024, BTC/USD set a new high ahead of the April block subsidy halving event. However, history shows that cycle peaks ultimately arrive on time.
"In 2024, Bitcoin accelerated for 260 days before the halving, setting a new high. Since then, Bitcoin has reduced that acceleration to zero," he continued. "In fact, what if Bitcoin is currently experiencing a slowdown in the cycle?"
If the slowdown is a fact, BTC/USD should therefore make up for lost time as soon as possible through significant gains and a return to price discovery.
"Indeed, Bitcoin's initial price discovery pullback lasts longer than usual. But Bitcoin often performs excessively or insufficiently at different stages of the cycle," Rekt Capital summarized. "Therefore, when Bitcoin breaks into a parabolic rise, it may significantly reduce any 'cycle extension' it has carried over the past few months."
Related: Trader "Qwatio" suffers 8 liquidations in a week, losing $12.5 million
Original article: “After a Record Second Quarter, What Will the Monthly Close Look Like? The Top 5 Things to Watch for Bitcoin (BTC) This Week”
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