Life is a form of endurance; we must learn to support ourselves. Life is inherently unpredictable; when there are whispers behind us, no matter how eloquently we speak, we cannot argue against it. The world is full of ups and downs; when we are successful, good things come in waves, but after setbacks, everything seems to fall away like petals. Do not take yourself too seriously; these are all indispensable parts of your life!
Just past a weekend, the market has basically maintained a slow upward trend with fluctuations. From Saturday's complete stability to signs of upward movement starting yesterday, this morning has seen continuous higher highs, forming a clear bullish trend. In terms of operations, according to our original plan, we held short positions at 107600 on Friday, and subsequently added to our positions at 108600. After this period of fluctuations, the cost of the short position is currently controlled around 108200. Today is Monday, and if there is still no pullback before 6 PM, dropping below 108000, we will consider exiting this short position. The reason is that after the weekend, the U.S. stock market is likely to open with a strong upward trend, which would make shorting later more cost-effective.
Returning to the market, we are once again in the familiar phase of liquidity accumulation amidst fluctuations. With ongoing volatility, new liquidity changes have emerged, primarily from the accumulation of short positions, which seems to be closer at the current price level. It appears that shorts believe the current price is rising and are looking for a short-term pullback. Additionally, from the new liquidity, shorts are using higher leverage, while bulls are taking a low-leverage approach to bet on continued upward movement. Currently, if the U.S. stock market performs well in the evening, as we mentioned earlier, it may lead to further upward movement in the market, facing further liquidation of shorts above. Of course, if negative news appears during this position in the U.S. market, it could lead to a reversal, with the liquidation of bulls likely around the recent position of 106000. One thing to note is that since the previous rebound, there has been a decrease in the spot premium during the upward process, indicating that there has been continuous selling of spot positions at these high levels. This suggests that the sustainability of the bulls after a rise may be insufficient, and if an upward liquidation occurs, it could signal the end of the bullish trend.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart continues to show a bullish trend amidst fluctuations, with the short-term moving average MA7 crossing upward. The structural trend remains bullish, and the MACD is in a bullish cycle, although the initial bullish cycle is not very strong. The trading volume has also significantly decreased, while the RSI is flattening at a relatively high level. Overall, there is still upward space on the daily chart, but after rising, it will be difficult to see a significant surge again, which aligns with the expected liquidity liquidation trend.
On the four-hour chart, the original pullback expectation has been resolved through fluctuations, and it continues to operate at high levels, consistently reaching higher points. The MACD has just entered a bullish cycle, and all moving averages are trending upward, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. Overall, the bullish signals from the market are quite strong, so returning to our previous operations, if the market continues to operate above 108000, we should exit the short positions. As for future operations, if we want to position for a trend trade, we may need to wait for a rebound to a higher level, or even a new high, before proceeding.
In terms of operations, we are currently holding short positions and waiting for the final outcome. If there is a continued rise, we expect an adjustment around 110000, while if it moves downward, we will look at the support test around 106500 to consider going long.
Ethereum, in comparison, is showing a weaker and more chaotic trend. Although we made some profits on Ethereum earlier, it is currently more challenging to operate in the short term. If Bitcoin reaches a new high and enters a consolidation phase at high levels, there may be significant opportunities for Ethereum to show independent strength. For now, in the short term, we can attempt to make short-term long trades, entering on slight pullbacks, focusing on ultra-short operations, which would be more suitable.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on market conditions.】
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