Master Discusses Hot Topics:

As the weekend contract market sees both long and short liquidity piling up, the focus has shifted. In the past two days, the liquidity for shorts has clearly increased, and the positions are very close, mostly involving high-leverage short-term players who are essentially looking to gamble on a small pullback before exiting.

On the other hand, the bulls are relatively rational, concentrating around 83K to 85K, with an average leverage of only 5 times. This indicates that they are looking to pick up cheap coins, not to risk their lives.

The key question now is whether these high-position shorts can be wiped out in one go. If U.S. stocks do not falter tonight and both sides push each other, then Bitcoin could potentially surge into the upper liquidation zone, starting to harvest short positions from short-term, medium-term, and even medium-long-term traders.

If it clears out cleanly, the price could directly surge to 113K, and seeing 115K in extreme cases wouldn’t be a dream. However, the reality is that the spot premium is still dropping. If the market really relies on the shorts' liquidation to push up, the spot premium might fall below the zero axis.

My current thought is that if the market really explodes, I will follow the trend and go long. But above 113K, I won’t chase without a clear structure. If the market suddenly starts to see a sharp drop in spot premium while the price doesn’t move up, we need to be cautious about whether a rat trading scheme has come back. Previously, whether it was during the Middle East tensions or the tariff wars, it was always played this way—sharp spikes but not cleaned out.

Returning to the market, Bitcoin has confirmed support at the 106500 level and has been moving upward. If it can break through 109K, we will see if it can hold. A true breakout would open up space above.

However, if it spikes and then gets pushed down, we need to check if 106500 can hold. If this level breaks, the trend could directly weaken, turning into a daily level oscillation downward. The monthly line is also about to close; as long as it closes above 105K, the structure remains bullish.

Additionally, the new funds from June 23 have not exited yet, and it doesn’t seem like accumulation but rather preparation for the liquidation of shorts above. If it were accumulation, how could the main force not wash out the market? This kind of upward movement feels more like a quick pump and dump.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 110200

First Resistance Level: 109000

Support Levels Reference:

Second Support Level: 107700

First Support Level: 106700

Currently, Bitcoin is forming a bullish flag pattern on a short-term basis and has already broken through the upper boundary of the downward channel, continuing its upward trend. Since breaking the upper boundary of the channel, the short-term view can remain bullish.

The 20-day moving average on the 4-hour level supports the rebound logic, and the bullish outlook can still be maintained in the short term. The key resistance encountered during the rebound is around 109K, which coincides with the descending trend line and previous highs, indicating strong pressure.

If the price retraces to the previous high of 107.7K, it would be a reasonable adjustment, allowing for gradual entry into long positions; the probability of a retest of 110K is also increasing.

At this stage, the probability of testing the first resistance at 109K remains high. A short-term pullback may occur at 109K, and it’s important to watch for effective adjustment opportunities.

If 109K can be broken with increased volume, then a retest of 110K can be expected. If the price breaks above 109K and consolidates in the 109 to 109.2K range, the upward trend will continue.

The first support at 107.7K is the key support level for maintaining the upward structure, and it is recommended to observe whether it effectively stops the decline in conjunction with the 20-day moving average on the 4-hour chart.

If 107.7K and the 20-day moving average support are broken, further adjustment possibilities need to be considered, with the range of 106.7K to 107K serving as a reference for short-term low long positions.

6.30 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Gradually enter long positions in the 106700-107700 range. Target: 109000-110200

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they show long positions, tomorrow they summarize shorts, appearing to "catch tops and bottoms every time," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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