Today, $CRCL broke below $200, and I just wanted to chat about it. Yesterday, I discussed the topic of CRCL with @YeruiZhang Rui, and I really liked Rui's method of calculating the valuation of CRCL. Unlike many of our friends, Rui suggested that the market cap increase of CRCL could be referenced against the decline of VIAS and MSTERCARD.

I compared the trends of $V and $MA, and they are highly correlated, as both businesses are also highly consistent. When CRCL was launched, both experienced a decline due to the market's expectation that CRCL might take up space in the payment market from both.

Of course, this is just an expectation; the market generally prefers expectations. However, if viewed this way, the market will gradually react. For the consumer side, CRCL still has a long way to go. In developed countries, breaking into the current payment market is very difficult, and changing user habits is hard. Not to mention that although CRCL appears to be profitable, the payment channel costs are higher.

This is not to mention that if interest rates start to decline comprehensively in 2026, CRCL's revenue will inevitably be impacted. Maintaining the current 30% would be good. The single revenue structure is a major issue for compliant stablecoins. This might also be the reason why Tether does not want to comply in the U.S., as compliant stablecoins cannot engage in "banking."

This means they cannot participate in high-yield projects like collateralized lending, and can only earn through U.S. Treasury bonds. If U.S. Treasury rates return to 0.25% or 0.5% by 2028, then CRCL's profitability will look bleak. Not to mention that CRCL also has to pay channel fees to #Binance and #Coinbase, so whether the remaining funds are enough to support CRCL in exploring new markets is uncertain.

Of course, financing is not an issue; going public is meant for financing. However, whether this financing can help CRCL open up the payment market and share in the profits, or whether it might face joint restrictions from VISA and MASTER, is hard to say.

While it's fine to benchmark against Paypal during the development of imagination, Paypal also has its own stablecoin, PAUSD, which is also a beneficiary of this stablecoin legislation. Moreover, Paypal's capabilities in payment and cross-border fields are areas where CRCL cannot even catch up.

So from the trend perspective, if Rui's statement holds true, then any rise driven by positive news from VISA and MASTER could potentially lead to a decline in CRCL.

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