The Federal Reserve's Stance Shifts from Hawkish to Dovish, Policy Adjustments Possible in September

Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's relatively hawkish remarks at the FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, the overall language of the Federal Reserve has significantly shifted towards a more dovish tone. After the June meeting, President Trump publicly criticized the Fed's policy stance, and several Fed officials have signaled dovish sentiments in their public statements. Powell himself adopted a more conciliatory attitude during his recent congressional hearing.

Currently, the rationale for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged is becoming increasingly difficult to justify, as inflation levels have fallen to 2.38%, not far from the 2.0% target. Last Friday, Fed Governor Waller suggested for the first time that the July FOMC meeting might consider a rate cut; subsequently, Governor Bowman expressed a similar view on Monday. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee further downplayed the inflation impact of tariffs, reinforcing market expectations for the Fed's shift to a dovish stance.

Although Powell and several economists had previously warned that tariffs could push inflation back above 3%, this scenario has not materialized. Current inflation remains stable, and the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2% for nearly a year, contrary to market expectations of a softening job market. Powell did not refute the recent dovish comments, stating that if inflation remains moderate, the timing for a rate cut could be moved up. While the likelihood of a rate cut in July remains low, the Fed may signal a possible policy adjustment in September during the meeting on July 30.

Corporate Credit Spreads Narrow Again Compared to Last Year, BTC Performance May Continue to Improve

Earlier this week, influenced by U.S. military airstrikes on Iran, BTC briefly retraced to its 21-week moving average (98,532 USD). This level serves as a key technical support and is often viewed as a dividing line between bullish and bearish trends. BTC is currently in a seasonal consolidation phase, and the Fed's dovish tone may provide gentle upward support for prices.

Corporate credit spreads have shown signs of narrowing again compared to the same period last year—this signal is historically viewed as bullish. A narrowing credit spread typically reflects improving economic fundamentals, and in such an environment, the macroeconomic performance often aligns positively with BTC. This dynamic also indicates that while current data may not be sufficient to prompt immediate action from the Fed, political pressure could still drive adjustments in its monetary policy stance.

Increase in Stablecoin Inflows Coincides with Market Liquidity Shortages, BTC Remains the Market Focus

Inflows of stablecoins, particularly Tether, have begun to rise recently. Although the overall trend remains unstable, since April, Tether's minting scale has reached approximately 12 million USD, while Circle's minting activities have been relatively limited. This divergence is noteworthy, as the sustained rise in the crypto market has historically relied on strong injections of stablecoins and broader liquidity channels. When comparing the issuance scale of stablecoins to the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization, liquidity issues become even more critical. In the absence of large-scale capital inflows, traders are likely to continue focusing their attention on BTC, which continues to outperform other crypto assets.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。