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With the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, a bunch of old Fed officials hinted at interest rate cuts a couple of days ago, causing a surge in the market. As expected, the Nasdaq soared to new highs, stable as ever.

What we should be looking at now is not whether it has risen, but how much higher it can go, where the peak is, and when it will start to spill over. Those who have experienced the 2017 Bitcoin bull market understand this; when the flavor is right, it’s still the familiar recipe.

So it’s reasonable for Bitcoin to play dead right now. Everyone can look back at the 74K wave when Bitcoin was stronger than the Nasdaq, and the subsequent rebound was even more vigorous. Therefore, core assets should surge first, then set a ceiling. We just need to wait for the funds to spill over to these peripheral assets.

Returning to the market, Bitcoin has remained in the 107K-108K range from yesterday to now, with neither bulls nor bears giving way. However, on a smaller scale, it has started to form lower highs and lower lows, which means a short-term pullback is possible, not an immediate surge; the real liquidation target for the bulls is the liquidity below.

Leverage data also reveals some insights, with the leverage ratio of new shorts being higher than that of longs. This indicates that this wave is not retail investors pushing against shorts, but rather shorts attempting to catch small price differences.

Importantly, the spot premium is slowly declining, meaning the selling pressure in the market mainly comes from spot selling, while the buying pressure is still from contract longs, clearly aiming to build positions at the bottom.

However, the funding rate has returned from -0.005% last night to around 0, indicating that the bulls are indeed tentatively opening positions. But the initial positions are very small, showing that these bulls are quite cautious, around 5x leverage, with liquidation zones at 85K-90K, so they can't be easily wiped out in the short term.

In conclusion, the overall direction still favors the bulls. However, there will be a short-term pullback; if it drops, it will be a loss. The first liquidation target: 105.5K, the second target: 103K.

For the bulls to turn things around, they need to add more positions to the shorts and trap more people to blow them up. So as long as the price breaks through 108K and forms a higher small-scale high, it can directly liquidate the short liquidity at 109.7K, and even impact the long-term shorts below 111.3K.

The 106.4K spike this morning is a small-scale bottom reversal, indicating that the fluctuations will continue for a few more rounds. The next key point to watch is the 4-hour level, when the 107K~108K range can break. If it breaks down, then the market will start to trend.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 108700

First Resistance Level: 108000

Support Level Reference:

Second Support Level: 106600

First Support Level: 105500

Currently, Bitcoin is still fluctuating within the range, having basically recovered yesterday's losses overall. On the 1-hour level, it is currently in the downward channel phase after an upward movement.

This pattern can be seen as a bullish flag, part of a consolidation structure during an uptrend. If it holds the previous low of 106.6K, the probability of the bullish flag forming will further increase.

The first resistance level at 108K is the current key resistance zone, and whether it breaks depends on whether the trading volume increases. If there is no increase in volume, the breakout will be limited.

Before testing 108K, if it can first break through the upper trendline of the flag, the possibility of further upward movement will increase. However, if the trading volume is low, the pattern may be delayed in validation.

The first support at 106.6K is an important low point held at yesterday's close, also a previous low position. If it retests, it can serve as a temporary bottom; at the same time, it is recommended to pay attention to the 105.5K area, which can be used as a strategy for gradual buying.

In the short term, attention can be paid to the 20-day and 60-day moving averages on the 1-hour level, which currently provide short-term support; if 106.6K is lost, it will trigger stronger downward momentum, also a potential opportunity for ultra-short-term longs.

6.27 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: Short in the 108000-108700 range in batches, Target: 106600-105500

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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