Written by: Golem (@web3_golem)
This morning, the Trump family's crypto project World Liberty Financial (WLFI) posted that significant news is forthcoming and hinted at the opening of token transfers. The community's enthusiasm for WLFI has surged again, chanting "something big is coming."
In mid-June, news circulated in the market that WLFI would soon begin circulation ahead of schedule, as the WLFI project team removed the mandatory 12-month lock-up clause from their official website and added a statement that "the company can modify and update the terms of service at any time." As a result, the price of WLFI briefly rose to $0.15 in the over-the-counter market, a tenfold increase from the first round presale price of $0.015, before settling back to around $0.12.
With the WLFI launch imminent, predictions about its post-launch price have become a topic of widespread interest in the market. The Odaliy Planet Daily will revisit the tokenomics of WLFI in this article and analyze its post-launch price and selling pressure based on holding data for readers' reference.
WLFI Presale Review, Total Fundraising Exceeds $550 Million
The total supply of WLFI is 100 billion tokens, currently all locked. WLFI has gone through three rounds of presales, with detailed information as follows:
The first round of WLFI presale began in October 2024, priced at $0.015 per token, with a total of 20 billion tokens (20% of total supply). The first round of presale progressed slowly due to a market filled with FUD, but after the Trump token launch, WLFI's popularity gradually increased, ultimately selling 20 billion WLFI tokens on January 20, 2025, raising $300 million.
Following the first round, WLFI quickly launched the second round of presale, priced at $0.05 per token, with a total of 5 billion tokens (5% of total supply). The second round of presale sold out on March 14, 2025, raising $250 million.
The first two rounds of WLFI presale were open to the public, while the third round was for institutional investors only and not open to the public, priced at $0.1 per token. It is known that on April 9, DWF Labs subscribed for 250 million WLFI tokens for $25 million, while a certain whale purchased a total of 800 million WLFI tokens on June 4 and June 12 for $80 million. This whale was initially thought to be the institutional B2C2 Group, but this was later debunked.
According to the above public information, WLFI sold a total of 26.05 billion tokens through three rounds of presales, accounting for 26.05% of the total supply. However, since the third round of presale was not open to the public, the actual presale data may be skewed.
WLFI Holder Data and Selling Pressure
Excluding the 26.05% sold in presales, there are still 73.95 billion WLFI tokens (73.95% of total supply) "missing."
However, according to the financial disclosure document released by the White House regarding Trump's financial status in 2025 (with a deadline of January 2025), Trump holds 15.75 billion WLFI tokens through his ETH wallet, accounting for 15.75% of the total supply. The financial document values this portion at around $1,000 to $15,000, but at the current over-the-counter price of around $0.12, it is worth approximately $1.89 billion.
Among WLFI holders, another significant figure is Justin Sun. Between November 2024 and January 2025, Justin Sun invested $75 million into WLFI through HTX-related addresses and TRON DAO; according to public information, he currently holds 3 billion WLFI tokens, accounting for 3% of the total supply.
According to on-chain data, there are a total of 85,870 addresses holding WLFI tokens. Crypto blogger @pow_fan compiled statistics on the funding tiers of users participating in WLFI purchases. Although the data is as of May 27, it is still of reference value, as he personally purchased $1.91 million worth of WLFI tokens.
As shown in the figure above, the number of addresses purchasing between $0 and $1,000 reached 66,910, accounting for 77% of total purchasing addresses, but this group of users only purchased about 520 million tokens, which is only 2% of the total purchase amount. Therefore, even if this portion were to circulate entirely, it would not significantly impact the overall market. In contrast, while there are only 64 addresses with purchases exceeding $1 million, they account for 56.4% of the total purchase amount.
WLFI Token Selling Pressure
From the above data, it can be seen that WLFI is a token whose holdings are highly concentrated among large holders. This is both an advantage for price increases, but if sold, it can instantly create pressure on the market, with retail investors bearing the cost of large holders offloading.
The token circulation volume determines the selling pressure. WLFI's official team has not disclosed whether WLFI tokens will be released all at once or unlocked linearly, or if there will be specific restrictions for large holders when WLFI tokens are opened for transfer. However, if we consider the extreme case of a one-time full release, who among the large holders might create selling pressure?
Based on holder data, potential selling pressure will likely first come from Trump (holding 15.75%), followed by Justin Sun (holding 3%) and other large investors, and finally from institutions like DWF Labs (holding 0.25%).
In reality, the probability of Justin Sun selling WLFI is relatively low. Although he has a history of "selling HSR after turning a corner" and "dumping TRUMP after dinner," this is usually after achieving his objectives. Justin Sun's purpose in purchasing WLFI is to show loyalty to the Trump family, thereby removing obstacles for TRON in terms of compliance and listing in the U.S. Until this goal is achieved, it is highly likely that Justin Sun will choose to hold WLFI to avoid angering the Trump family.
The real selling pressure will come from Trump and the institutions. Trump is not only the largest holder but also the biggest source of selling pressure for WLFI, as it is an undeniable fact that the Trump family views the crypto industry as a cash cow (see related reading: The Monetization of Presidential Privilege: How the Trump Family Harvests the Crypto Market with TRUMP Tokens). However, given that they still see "value" in the crypto industry, crypto users have not erupted in large-scale protests or FUD. If this 15.75% of tokens were to quietly enter the market, it could potentially deliver a heavy blow to the market, and WLFI may replicate the history of TRUMP, but it may be difficult to reach the heights TRUMP once achieved before a collapse.
WLFI Market Capitalization Estimate Post-Launch
So, what price can WLFI reach after its launch?
If the over 26 billion tokens from the presale are fully circulated, at the current over-the-counter price of $0.12, the circulating market capitalization would be $3.12 billion, equivalent to Aptos's market capitalization, ranking 39th in crypto; if the price breaks $0.5, the market capitalization would be $13 billion, surpassing HYPE and ranking 13th in crypto; if the price breaks $1, the market capitalization would be $26 billion, surpassing the market capitalizations of DOGE and TRX, ranking 8th in crypto.
The last token from the Trump family, TRUMP, reached a peak price of $82, with a circulating market capitalization of about $13 billion, equivalent to WLFI's price breaking $0.5.
If we compare business models, WLFI has a stablecoin product, USD 1, which can be compared to Circle: Circle currently has a market capitalization of $44.7 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of about $23.7 billion; based on this comparison, WLFI's price would be around $0.8 to $1.
Of course, there are also extremely optimistic voices in the community who believe WLFI will reach $0.47 upon launch, then break $4.7, and finally reach a height of $47. Why the number "47"? The reason may be that WLFI previously airdropped 47 USD1 tokens to holders, and Trump is currently serving as the 47th President of the United States.
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