Original Title: "How Many Times Did Trump Urge Powell to Cut Rates? Why Won't Powell Cut?"
Original Author: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
On June 24, 2025, Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social," stating, "Too late, Mr. Powell," as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would explain in Congress today why he refused to lower interest rates. Europe has cut rates 10 times, while we have done so zero times. There is no inflation, the economy is booming—we should at least lower by 2 to 3 percentage points. This would save the U.S. $800 billion annually.
Since Trump took office in January, how many times has he urged Powell to cut rates? Why is Trump urging? Why won't Powell cut rates?
I. How Many Times Has Trump Urged Powell?
On June 24, U.S. President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social," stating, "Too late, Mr. Powell," as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell would explain in Congress today why he refused to lower interest rates. Europe has cut rates 10 times, while we have done so zero times. There is no inflation, the economy is booming—we should at least lower by 2 to 3 percentage points. This would save the U.S. $800 billion annually.
On June 21, Trump posted on social media, saying: "Too late, Mr. Powell is always complaining about cost issues—most of these costs are caused by the Biden administration. The biggest contribution he can make to America right now is to decisively cut rates. If he could lower rates by one or two basis points, this 'blockhead' could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion annually. Although my strong criticism may make it harder for him to fulfill his duties (to cut rates), I have tried all moderate means: I have been polite, neutral, and tough, but unfortunately, all have failed! Don’t use 'potential future inflation risks' as an excuse—because there is no inflation right now! Even if inflation does appear in the future, we can raise rates then. I really don’t understand why the Federal Reserve Board doesn’t replace this complete idiot! Perhaps I need to change my mind about whether to fire Powell. But no rush, his term is almost over anyway!"
On June 18, Trump stated that the U.S. had collected $88 billion from tariffs and that "there is no inflation," again calling for a rate cut. He said, "If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, we will buy U.S. bonds at lower prices. However, frankly, we have a stupid person at the Federal Reserve who probably won’t cut rates today. He is doing a terrible job. We should cut rates by 200 basis points, and it would be even better if we could cut by 250 basis points. I plan to first take a short-term strategy to significantly lower rates, and then switch to a long-term strategy."
On June 13, Trump stated that he did not intend to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell but called him a "fool" for not cutting rates. Trump said that a 200 basis point cut could save the U.S. $600 billion annually. Trump said, "We are spending $600 billion a year just because a 'fool' is sitting here saying 'I don’t see enough reason to cut rates now.'" Trump added that if inflation rises, he agrees with the Federal Reserve raising rates, "but right now inflation is declining, and I may have to take some measures."
On June 12, Trump pointed out: I will not fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell; he just needs to lower rates, and our inflation data looks good. I once told Powell that there was no need to keep rates so high; raise rates if inflation appears within a year.
On June 6, Trump stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should cut rates. Rates should be lowered by a full percentage point; Europe has cut rates ten times in a row, while we have not taken any rate-cutting measures. The "Too late, Mr. Powell" is a disaster.
On June 4, Trump posted on social media that the ADP data was out, and "Too late, Mr. Powell" must cut rates now. He is unbelievable; Europe has already cut rates nine times.
On May 14, Trump posted on "Truth Social," stating that there is no inflation, and the prices of gasoline, energy, groceries, and almost all other goods are falling! The Federal Reserve must cut rates like Europe and China. "Too late, Mr. Powell, why are you still hesitating? This is unfair to America, which is ready to prosper. Let everything take its course; it will be a wonderful thing!"
On April 23, Trump, attending the swearing-in ceremony of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Atkins, stated that he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, although he was disappointed that the Federal Reserve had not cut rates faster. "Never," Trump told reporters, "the media always messes things up. I didn’t plan to fire him. I hope to see him be more proactive about cutting rates." Trump said, "Grocery prices have fallen; everything is falling. The only thing that hasn’t fallen but hasn’t really risen is interest rates." Trump stated, "We believe the Federal Reserve should cut rates; now is a perfect time. We hope our chairman can cut rates early or on time, rather than late." Trump also noted that the stock market is doing well.
On April 22, Trump stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell does not cut rates immediately, the economy could slow down. Trump asserted on his social media platform on Monday: The decline in energy and daily necessities prices indicates "almost no inflation." "But the economy could slow down unless 'Too late, Mr. Powell' this big waste of space cuts rates now," Trump again referred to Powell with a derogatory term.
On April 18, U.S. President Trump spoke at the White House, reiterating that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should cut rates. He also said that the U.S. is very likely to reach an agreement with Ukraine. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently stated at the Chicago Economic Club that he would not take emergency measures due to market fluctuations. Powell's statement immediately drew strong criticism from President Trump.
On April 17, Trump again pressured Powell, stating that Powell could be let go immediately and demanded that the Federal Reserve cut rates immediately.
On April 4, Trump stated: For Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, now is the best time to cut rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell always acts too late. (Addressing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell) Cut rates, stop playing politics.
On March 24, during a Cabinet meeting at the White House, Trump again urged the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy.
On March 19, Trump posted on "Truth Social," saying, "The Federal Reserve better cut rates," as the impact of U.S. tariffs began to gradually seep into the economy.
On February 12, Trump stated that he believed rates should be lowered, and cutting rates would complement the upcoming tariff policy.
On January 24, Trump stated at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, "As oil prices fall, I will demand an immediate rate cut; similarly, the whole world should cut rates."
According to Jinse Finance, Trump has urged Powell at least 17 times and has repeatedly referred to him as "Too late, Mr. Powell" and "fool," expressing his dissatisfaction with Powell.
II. Why Is Trump Urgent About Cutting Rates?
· Offset Tariff Policy Impact: Trump's tariff policy has led to increased costs for imported goods, triggering imported inflation, and the U.S. economy faces the risk of worsening inflation and slowing economic growth. He hopes to "offset" the inflation brought by the tariff policy through rate cuts to alleviate economic pressure. Fortune has reported that Trump wants to lower rates to "offset" the inflation caused by his own tariff policy. The Associated Press believes that Trump's tariff policy has increased the risk of recession for the U.S. economy, and Trump seems to want to shift the blame to Powell.
· Reduce Government Debt Costs: Data from the U.S. Treasury shows that federal debt interest expenses are large and continuously growing. Over the past eight months, federal debt interest expenses have been about $776 billion. Compared to the same period last fiscal year, this has increased by 7%, while the interest burden from the previous fiscal year has already reached the highest level since the 1990s. Trump believes that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve can reduce the financing costs of government debt, claiming that a 2 percentage point cut could save $600 billion in interest costs annually. However, economists warn that this move could backfire. If rates are lowered when the economic fundamentals do not require it, it may trigger inflation concerns. A decrease in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds would subsequently push bond yields higher, further increasing the government's interest burden.
· Stimulate Economic Growth: Rate cuts can typically increase market liquidity, stimulate business investment and consumer spending, and drive economic growth. Trump may believe that the current U.S. economic growth is under pressure and hopes to boost the economy through rate cuts to achieve his economic policy goals, such as promoting employment and enhancing corporate competitiveness, which could also help increase his support among voters.
· Boost Stock Market Performance: Trump views the performance of the U.S. stock market as an important achievement. Rate cuts can increase market liquidity, thereby stimulating credit expansion and asset price increases, leading to a favorable short-term outlook for the stock market, which benefits his voter support.
III. Why Won't Powell Cut Rates?
On June 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that while the Federal Reserve "can see that the labor market may be slowly and steadily cooling," considering the current strong labor participation rate and good wage growth, this cooling is not a cause for concern. He stated, "Although the uncertainty of the economic outlook has decreased, it remains at a high level." As long as the current labor market conditions persist, along with reasonable economic growth and gradually declining inflation, Powell said he is willing to wait for more information before deciding on the next steps.
Data shows that despite a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter contraction in GDP in the first quarter of 2025, the labor market remains strong: the unemployment rate is stable at a low of 4.5%, and hourly wage growth remains above 4%. Powell pointed out that "hard data" such as consumer spending and business investment still show the economy expanding at a rate of 1.5%-2%, which contrasts with the weakness of "soft indicators" like manufacturing PMI. This structural contradiction leads the Federal Reserve to believe that the current economy has not fallen into recession and does not require rate cuts to stimulate demand.
IV. What Do Others Think About the Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Issue?
Support for Rate Cuts:
U.S. Vice President Vance: The Federal Reserve's refusal to cut rates is a failure of monetary policy.
Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2, there has been a lack of significant inflationary pressure, which may allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates again.
Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated, "If inflationary pressures are controlled, I would support a quick reduction in the policy rate at the next meeting to bring it closer to neutral levels and maintain a healthy labor market."
U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnik stated that the U.S. is the greatest country in the world but has to endure the highest interest rates among all first-class countries. Our Federal Reserve Chairman is clearly afraid of his own shadow. The truly sad part of Powell's remarks is that he claims tariffs have led to "price increases in some related categories, such as personal computers." You would think Powell should know that there are no tariffs on personal computers. There aren't any yet. Tariffs on semiconductors and computers will be announced after the Commerce Department completes its analysis. These high rates are meaningless.
U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Pulte: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell must cut rates immediately.
Opposition to Rate Cuts:
Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that current data shows no urgent reason to cut rates, as the job market and consumption remain strong. The final direction of trade policy is still uncertain, and it is unclear how it will affect prices and employment; businesses expect to raise prices later this year as more higher-priced imported goods enter their inventories; companies not affected by tariffs see the confusion in trade policy as an opportunity to raise prices.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio: The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position and should not cut rates.
V. Predictions for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve's Harker stated that as the U.S. financial system faces increasing challenges, deficits must be controlled, and he is "very concerned" about the current government fiscal situation. Harker also mentioned, "We are becoming increasingly blind regarding key data. We are worried that the quality of economic data is declining. Uncertainty makes it very difficult to predict the monetary policy outlook. But amidst the uncertainty, the Federal Reserve may still cut rates later this year."
Citigroup has adjusted its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut from July to September.
Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, stated that while the U.S. labor market remains strong, it is gradually cooling. Given the significant revision of the previous non-farm payroll report, I expect the Federal Reserve to restart its rate-cutting mode in July. Current wage levels are stable, but changes are likely in the coming months. The biggest variable in the job market is real estate—early warning signs of risk are emerging in the housing market, and a cooling labor market will exacerbate this trend.
Interest rate futures traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year in September and December.
Franklin Templeton CEO: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates only once in 2025.
EY economist Gregory Daco stated that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%. Recent comments from the Federal Reserve have reinforced a wait-and-see attitude, and in light of increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, officials have not shown urgency in adjusting policy. The policy statement may not change significantly. The FOMC may reiterate that inflation remains "a bit high," the labor market is "solid," and the unemployment rate is "stable at a low level." It may also reiterate that "the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased," especially considering the uncertainty in the economic outlook. The median dot plot for interest rate expectations is expected to remain unchanged, with two 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year. The dot plot is still expected to show a further cut of 50 basis points to 3.4% in 2026, and another cut to 3.1% in 2027. Policymakers' median estimate for the long-term neutral rate is likely to remain at 3%.
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