Key Summary:
Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $106,000, indicating that institutional investor demand remains strong despite escalating global turmoil.
Bitcoin's hash rate sharply declined by 8%, raising concerns about the impact of tensions in the Middle East on mining stability.
After briefly dropping below $98,500 on June 22 (the first time in 45 days), Bitcoin regained the $106,000 mark on Monday. Market anxiety noticeably eased after U.S. President Trump announced a "comprehensive ceasefire" between Israel and Iran. Analysts are currently assessing whether Bitcoin can break through the $110,000 level or if downside risks still exist.
Despite the price volatility, the Bitcoin derivatives market has remained stable. This price movement led to the liquidation of $193 million in long leveraged Bitcoin positions, accounting for only 0.3% of the total open contracts in futures. The current $68 billion in leveraged positions is roughly unchanged from Saturday.
Historically, a 4.4% drop in Bitcoin within 12 hours is not particularly concerning. Similar pullbacks have occurred three times in the past 30 days. However, some traders are worried that a potential long-term conflict in the Iranian region could exert significant pressure on the global economy, prompting investors to adopt more cautious, risk-averse strategies.
Some market observers have noted a significant decline in Bitcoin's hash rate. From Sunday to Thursday, the network's hash rate dropped by 8%, from 943.6 million terahashes per second (TH/s) to 865.1 million TH/s. This phenomenon has sparked widespread speculation about potential disruptions to mining operations in the region.
Industry experts have long speculated that unauthorized mining activities in the Iranian region could consume up to 2 gigawatts of electricity, although these claims have largely not been conclusively verified.
Due to a lack of transparent data, accurately estimating the actual mining capacity present within the Iranian region is nearly impossible. However, analysts point out that the sudden and significant drop in hash rate is not an unusual occurrence.
Daniel Batten emphasized that such fluctuations are often closely related to temporary reductions in power output within the United States. Under extreme weather conditions, Bitcoin miners often face strong economic incentives to temporarily shut down operations.
A recent typical case occurred on April 22, when Bitcoin's hash rate plummeted by 27% following severe storms in Texas and Oklahoma. These extreme weather events included heavy rain, large hail, and at least 17 confirmed tornadoes, which severely disrupted the local energy grid and significantly impacted mining activities.
Meanwhile, oil prices significantly fell on Monday after climbing to a high of $77 on Sunday. This trend coincided with a 1% increase in the S&P 500 index. Following retaliatory attacks in the Qatar region, traders are increasingly betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in the near future.
CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that the implied probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current 4.25% interest rate level before November has dropped to 8.4%, down from 17.1% a week ago. In contrast, the probability of rates falling to 3.75% or lower before November has risen to 53%, compared to just 38% in the same period.
Predicting that Bitcoin will soar to $110,000 solely based on a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East may be overly hasty. However, Bitcoin's rapid return above $100,000 suggests that institutional investor interest in Bitcoin remains robust even amid global geopolitical tensions.
This article is for general reference only and does not constitute legal or investment advice, nor should it be considered as such. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Original article: “Bitcoin (BTC) rebounds to $106K amid Middle East ceasefire and rate cut bets”
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