🧐🇺🇸 The U.S. Prepares to Attack Iran: Comprehensive Interpretation | War-Time V-Shaped Market Outlook

The smoke of war in the Middle East is about to ignite. Today, the U.S. announced a possible attack on Iran this weekend, stirring global markets. However, the on-chain data for $BTC presents a completely different narrative:

Current Status: Although we are facing an unexpected war situation, all indicators remain in the "healthy zone."

1) Selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, with whales and ETFs quietly taking over;

2) Active addresses and hash rate continue to surge.

In other words, the funds are "leaving exchanges, not Bitcoin." If the conflict is only a short-term shock, on-chain data suggests a more likely scenario of "initial decline followed by absorption" rather than a deep bear market.

This pattern of initial decline followed by strong absorption is likely to complete a chip turnover around $100K, then, taking advantage of the vacuum created by dissipating panic, it could directly hit $110–115K—rather than turning into a deep bear market and breaking below $95K.

Therefore, the market trend is expected as follows:

Before the situation in Iran becomes clear, BTC may experience a 5–8% shock correction, but the support from whale accumulation, ETF purchases, and hash rate backing will provide solid support.

If the shock lands quickly, it is expected that $100K ± $3K will be a strong accumulation zone; after the panic dissipates, the probability of BTC reaching $110K–$115K again is greater than continuing to break below $95K.

1) Selling Pressure Exhausted, Off-Market Buying Continues

The large net outflow and net ETF purchases in the past 48 hours indicate that the selling pressure mainly comes from profit-taking rather than panic selling; institutions and whales are seizing the opportunity to absorb liquidity.

If the U.S. does indeed strike Iran, historical patterns often show "event shock → sharp drop on the same or next day → continued outflow exhaustion → rapid price recovery." The current on-chain capital structure has already laid the groundwork for this "V-shaped recovery."

2) Activity and Security Remain Healthy

Active addresses remain in the range of 860,000–900,000, and on-chain usage has not cooled due to geopolitical news.

The new high in hash rate means that miners are fully incentivized regarding the long-term value of BTC, and the probability of a chain reaction impact on block production and security due to geopolitical shocks is very low.

3) Profit/Loss Pressure is Mild

STH-SOPR is close to 1, indicating that short-term profits are not substantial, lacking a widespread motivation for profit-taking; only if it breaks below 1 should we be wary of panic selling.

Long-term whales continue to increase their positions, counteracting potential selling pressure from retail investors.

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