Metrics Ventures June Market Observation Guide for the Cryptocurrency Market
Following our viewpoint from May, the prices of Bitcoin and global risk assets further increased in May, with Bitcoin once again reaching a historical high. This new high is relatively unnoticed, largely due to the market's reduced risk appetite and fatigue from news trading, which also lays the groundwork for further increases.
Bitcoin and global risk assets have entered a momentum vacuum period, lacking new trading events. They are no longer sensitive to event stimuli or macroeconomic shocks, and the entire market is in a state of waiting for the next narrative (expected to be a unified adjustment of the interest rate cut path).
The winter night for altcoins has completely entered a deep night after a wave of emotional ups and downs. Trading volume and volatility have diminished, and it is foreseeable that mid-term new funds will find it difficult to return to CEX after observing options like SBET CIRCLE, as the painful clearing of chips will continue to emerge in numbness.
Market Overview and Commentary on Overall Market Trends
In the past month, the market has experienced a cooling process with gradually weakening momentum. After Bitcoin's new high, the market, especially the traditional cryptocurrency market, has further confirmed the reality indicated by on-chain data: old cryptocurrency holders have sold off their Bitcoin in bulk during the past two rounds of chip exchanges. The event momentum accumulated during the extreme market conditions in April has also been released in Bitcoin's price, leading the entire dollar market into a momentum vacuum, with volatility and trading volume rapidly converging.
Regarding Bitcoin's price, we believe it is still too early to worry about a peak. In fact, the entire dollar asset market has become fatigued with event stimuli and existing macro narratives. We expect the next unified trading stimulus and narrative to quickly form a consensus on the interest rate cut path. Global liquidity has been at a new high for a long time, and the support for asset prices will not disappear in the mid-term.
More importantly this month, after a rapid rise, we have seen concrete evidence of the capital flow path shifting from traditional CEX to Nasdaq, which we have been reporting since March. The price behavior and depth of the market that investors feel can be abstracted as a collapse in trading volume. Data from a competitor shows that recent contract trading volume on CEX has fallen to 2020 levels.
When we see ETH sentiment rising, the best-performing assets in the entire market have also shifted to listed companies like SBET, no longer the likes of LDO OP from a few years ago. Apart from being linked to listed shell companies, altcoins may have to quietly wait for years for chip clearing, continuously praying for fortune to bestow.
Finally, regarding ETH, our previously held view that ETH benefits from both regulatory easing and liquidity support remains unchanged. We completed our trading bet in May, and after ETH stabilizes at the annual line and the exchange rate breaks the existing consolidation state, we expect new trading opportunities to arise. Let’s encourage each other.
About Us
Metrics Ventures is a data and research-driven liquidity fund for the secondary market of cryptocurrency assets, led by a team of experienced cryptocurrency professionals. The team possesses expertise in primary market incubation and secondary market trading, playing an active role in industry development through in-depth on-chain/off-chain data analysis. MVC collaborates with senior influential figures in the cryptocurrency community to provide long-term empowerment support for projects, such as media and KOL resources, ecological collaboration resources, project strategies, and economic model consulting capabilities.
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