In fact, what we fear most in life is not the lack of results after hard work, but giving up before even trying. Thinking a thousand times is not as good as doing it once. If you don't push yourself, how will you know how excellent you can be? Instead of complaining, it's better to change. If you don't grow, who will be strong for you?
Today, I really woke up to find the sky has fallen. I stared at the market in silence for a few minutes before recovering, then went to check the news to see what had happened to cause such a drop. I found out that there was a conflict between Israel and Iran in the Middle East. Just yesterday, I saw news that the U.S. was evacuating personnel from the Middle East, and I really didn't expect things to escalate so quickly. In terms of the market, yesterday was supposed to maintain a range, and there was even a rebound trend at one point in the evening, returning above 108,000. I thought that once I received the long position, it should be stable, but then we encountered such a sudden situation. The U.S. stock market plummeted, and the crypto market was not spared. Gold and oil surged, which shows that, ultimately, Bitcoin still has more of a risk asset attribute, and there is still a significant consensus gap between it and true safe-haven assets like gold. According to yesterday's analysis and operational thinking, the market was moving without any issues. We initially shorted from above 110,000, then took a long position between 107,000-107,500, expecting the market to maintain its range before moving up. After completing this segment, we anticipated a major cycle-level correction. Now, affected by the sudden situation, the market has dropped, and our psychological support target of 105,000 has been directly breached, with the low point falling below 103,000. This has added some uncertainty to the subsequent market, making it difficult to judge in the short term. We may need to wait for the market to move a bit more before it becomes clearer.
Returning to today's market, first regarding liquidity, the drop caused by this sudden situation caught the bullish liquidity below off guard. A clear indication is that yesterday the funding rate was still positive, but today it has turned negative. We mentioned yesterday that there was something strange about liquidity; there was clearly a large accumulation of short positions above, and the market had several attempts to push above 110,000, not far from a massive short liquidation. However, facing so many short positions, there has been no liquidation, and instead, the spot market has seen selling. I didn't expect such a big move today. Now, this short-term market has become more complex. The intensity of the drop has appeared, and due to the uncertainty of the conflict, from an emotional standpoint, it should be stronger short-selling sentiment driven by panic selling. However, the spot premium index is rising, indicating a strong desire to buy in the spot market, which complicates matters. For now, we will first observe the changes in the spot premium rate during the evening U.S. trading session. If it continues to rise, then the market's impact from the drop will be minimal, and the bullish confidence for the future market remains good. If the premium rate starts to decline, it indicates that the market is more focused on short-term oversold rebounds, and we can continue to short on the rebound.
On the technical side, the daily line's retracement has brought the coin price down to the dense area of moving averages. From a structural perspective, if the daily line closes and the coin price can rebound to recover some of the drop, it will still provide confidence for bulls in the short term. Additionally, many friends are concerned whether the current conflict will lead to a bear market. Personally, I believe that discussing bear and bull markets is not very meaningful, and the time cycle is still early. Currently, as long as the market remains above 93,000, it is not excessive to discuss entering a bear market, and until it stands above 110,000 again, it is not excessive to discuss a bull market. On the technical indicators, the daily MACD still has expectations of entering a bullish cycle. Due to the retracement over the past two days, the bearish volume of MACD has already been reduced, but this situation means that as long as the market does not continue to decline, the time to enter a bullish cycle will not be long, possibly just next week. Other indicators show signs of downward divergence, and the RSI, which was originally at a high level, has almost recovered. Overall, the daily line has a bullish expectation, with the time cycle to be determined.
On the four-hour level, it is currently running in a bearish cycle, with an increased retracement intensity. There is no obvious sign of a stop in the decline, and bearish sentiment is strong. The structural reference is not very significant, and the MACD technical indicator needs an oversold rebound to see a convergence of bearish sentiment, while the RSI has entered a low-level oversold state.
In terms of operations, as we mentioned above, the most suitable approach is to wait for the evening situation to arrange accordingly. Personally, I judge that there may be a small rebound in the short term, so for long positions, I would look for a rebound near 103,500, although the profit may not be much. If the spot premium rate decreases in the evening, we will need to short on the rebound, targeting the 106,000-106,500 area for shorting. If the spot premium continues to rise, then we can hold long positions.
Ethereum has also dropped significantly. In fact, we discussed Ethereum's future market in detail yesterday. If the market starts to rebound, we will maintain our view on Ethereum's trend. If the market continues to retrace, Ethereum will definitely follow. So for now, we can refer to Bitcoin's operations. For short-term longs, we can participate around 2,480-2,500, while opportunities to short on rebounds can be looked for near 2,650.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes are real-time. The information may be delayed, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact us for discussions on the market.】
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