This Wednesday (today) and Thursday (tomorrow), the CPI and PPI data will be released. Current market expectations indicate a possibility of an increase. According to the data forecast from the Cleveland Fed, the broad CPI is 2.4%, which is higher than the previous value but lower than market expectations, while the core CPI is 2.84%, the same as the previous value. Additionally, Nick's analysis shows the broad CPI at 2.4% and the core CPI at 2.9%. Overall, the probability of tonight's CPI data being higher than expected is greater, which may trigger some slight market fluctuations.
However, this data is difficult to influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and does not represent the inflation trend after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. Still, it can easily affect investor sentiment, making investors realize that inflation has already rebounded even before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs. The Federal Reserve may adopt a more aggressive stance on monetary policy, which could impact the performance of risk markets.
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