Last week (June 3 - June 10), BTC experienced a 10% pullback and $1.9 billion in derivatives liquidation before rebounding, briefly breaking through the $110,000 mark. On June 5, influenced by the conflict between Trump and Musk, market panic drove BTC close to $106,000, hitting a low of $100,372, barely holding above the $100,000 threshold. Subsequently, positive non-farm employment data boosted sentiment, and BTC rebounded to $110,530, with a maximum weekly increase of 10.12%, currently stabilizing around $109,450. Compared to BTC, ETH saw a larger rebound, mainly driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and capital inflow. Currently, the spot price of ETH is approximately $2,675 (Binance, June 10, 15:00).
Market Interpretation
BTC briefly breaks through $110,000, DeFi sector leads the market rally
Last week, BTC fell below $101,000 amid market panic triggered by the Trump-Musk conflict, with ETH also pulling back and mainstream cryptocurrencies generally under pressure. Following slightly better-than-expected non-farm data, risk appetite warmed up, leading BTC and ETH to lead the gains, with DeFi leaders like SOL, AAVE, UNI, and MKR all seeing weekly increases of over 13%. The total liquidation across the network reached $436 million, with long positions accounting for 87%, and the total crypto market cap rose to $3.56 trillion. The fear and greed index rose to 71, indicating a clear capital inflow and accelerated sector rotation.
The core driving forces behind the rise are, first, the release of selling pressure and liquidity recovery after the liquidation of previously high-leverage funds, resulting in a healthier market structure; second, the SEC chairman's positive signals regarding DeFi exemption policies, with favorable policies combined with the recovery of investor sentiment. In the short term, attention remains on this week's U.S. CPI and other macro data's impact on risk appetite.
U.S. non-farm data slightly exceeds expectations, market sentiment turns optimistic
In May, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000, the lowest in three months but above the market expectation of 126,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Following the data release, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, while gold prices slightly retreated.
Recently, U.S. stock trading continues to focus on expectations of an economic "soft landing" and changes in U.S.-China trade policies. Current employment and inflation data indicate a moderate economic slowdown, with stable unemployment rates, leading to a delay in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, high-level U.S.-China discussions on "reciprocal tariffs" have resumed, and although negotiations have not made substantial progress, the market holds a cautiously optimistic view on policy easing.
Overall, the non-farm employment data slightly exceeding expectations provides some support for U.S. stocks and the dollar, with a temporary rebound in risk appetite, although geopolitical and policy uncertainties remain.
Trump and Musk's public conflict impacts global markets
Last Thursday (June 5), Trump and Musk clashed over the "Beautiful America Act," which canceled electric vehicle tax credits and carbon credit policies, severely impacting Tesla's profitability. As a result, Tesla's stock price plummeted over 14% on June 6, with a market value evaporating by about $150 billion, and the three major U.S. stock indices also fell across the board, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq dropping 0.25%, 0.53%, and 0.83%, respectively.
On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively declined, and the crypto market experienced significant volatility, with BTC dipping to a low of $100,372 and ETH falling over 7%. This round of market adjustment, in addition to the "Trump-Musk" incident itself, was compounded by profit-taking after previous gains, delays in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and seasonal liquidity issues.
ETH ETF capital inflow, financial innovation becomes the main theme
In the past 20 days, ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $815 million, achieving a cumulative net inflow of $658 million for the first time since the beginning of the year, indicating a clear trend of capital inflow. ETH's rebound has outpaced BTC, benefiting from the accelerated implementation of key applications such as stablecoins and asset tokenization. Payment giants like Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe are actively positioning themselves in the ETH stablecoin space, while crypto platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood are enhancing financial innovation scenarios, with the ETH market structure gradually shifting from speculation-driven to application-driven.
More Information
New South Korean president promotes stablecoin and ETF institutionalization, driving regional capital inflow
After Lee Jae-myung was elected as South Korea's president, the ruling party quickly proposed the "Digital Asset Basic Law," easing the threshold for local companies to issue stablecoins and promoting the legalization of virtual asset ETFs. The institutionalization process of the South Korean crypto market is accelerating, with trading activity continuing to rise, and favorable policies driving capital back into local assets in won.
Total scale of crypto funds reaches new highs, trend of diversified asset allocation strengthens
In May, the global crypto fund assets under management reached $167 billion, with a net inflow of $7.05 billion in a single month, accelerating capital inflow into the crypto market. Data shows that BlackRock's spot BTC ETF (IBIT) surpassed $70 billion in assets within 341 trading days, holding 2.8% of the global BTC total supply.
In contrast, global equity funds saw a net outflow of $5.9 billion, and gold funds experienced their first net outflow in 15 months. Crypto assets are gradually becoming a regular allocation in investment portfolios, revealing structural changes in the market.
Crypto treasury model gains popularity, leverage and liquidation risks under scrutiny
Currently, over 120 listed companies have included BTC in their treasuries, with MicroStrategy holding 580,000 BTC, valued at over $61 billion. Analysts believe that if BTC falls below $90,000, about half of the companies holding BTC will face the risk of losses, and passive selling could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. The shift in Grayscale's GBTC premium and related liquidation cases serve as a warning for the current crypto treasury model, and the industry needs to be vigilant about excessive leverage and liquidity risks.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
