Someone asked me what I believe in, and I said I only believe in time. Because in this world, only time does not deceive, only time can prove everything, what is true and what is false. For example, when observing people, do not use your eyes to look, as it is easy to be misled; do not use your ears to listen, because they are all lies. Only use time and your heart to feel; the truth cannot be disguised, and falsehood cannot become real! Therefore, my favorite saying is: time will leave behind the truest people.
The market trends are always so unexpected. The gap from what we anticipated yesterday is quite large; it did not continue to operate within the oscillation range but instead, after a slight pullback yesterday morning, rebounded to around the high point of 110500 due to the stimulus from news about Sino-U.S. talks. However, this market trend is indeed very unclear. In terms of volume and liquidity, the entire crypto market, including Bitcoin, is very poor, yet the actual result is that Bitcoin's price is gradually rising. In this situation, to be honest, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the upcoming trends. Why do I say this? Referring to the historical market trend patterns, generally, under conditions of poor liquidity and low volume rises, most of the time, there will be a rapid decline correction afterward. However, it is often difficult to determine how long a low-volume rise can continue upward. For example, yesterday, the market rebounded from the bottom, showing a low liquidity and low volatility rise while facing resistance at the previous oscillation area's high point. In such a clear situation, we had to look bearish, but in reality, the low-volume rebound continued, and the high points kept rising, which is what we refer to as trend uncertainty. In terms of operations, I chose left-side trading yesterday but did not wait for a correction to appear. The market broke through the key resistance of 107000 that we emphasized, and ultimately, I had no choice but to exit. Fortunately, after the market broke through, I began to change my mindset and engaged in right-side trading to capitalize on the breakout, recovering losses. This point has also been emphasized in previous articles: during oscillations, just follow the direction in which the market breaks out.
Returning to today's market, in terms of liquidity, as the market rises, it has once again completed the clearing of the short liquidity above, making the current short liquidity mainly come from around 111500, which is almost at the historical high point. There is still some distance to go, and whether it continues to clear upward depends on whether there is news to stimulate it. In the short term, if the market's pullback during the day can stay above 108500 or maintain high-level oscillations, and if the market receives some positive news, such as tomorrow's CPI, it is highly likely to continue clearing the shorts upward. After all, the rise on Monday can be seen from the trading volume; the spot market did not show significant volume increase, while the futures market saw a substantial increase in positions, with the rise mainly coming from short covering and new long positions.
From a technical perspective, I must admit that we are currently in a relatively high market position. If we look solely at the weekly trend, the current market still has a narrative, very similar to past weekly K-line patterns where new highs are broken, followed by horizontal oscillation and then a significant correction. This means that at this position, if the market does not pull back and continues to break new highs, we must consider the possibility of a top structure due to continuous weekly divergence. However, as I said, the weekly level has a larger timeframe and requires time to digest. If there is a pullback at the weekly level, then we can consider going long to look for new highs, with the pullback position roughly around 105000.
On the daily chart, the market is performing very strongly, with consecutive bullish candles, and the price is running above the moving averages. The MACD also shows expectations for further bullish cycles. Based on this chart, we really need to consider the market continuing upward, even reaching new highs. After breaking through the oscillation area yesterday, the current daily chart is filled with bullish sentiment.
On the four-hour structure, the price is in a continuous upward trend, but after reaching a high, there has been a slight pullback. What is a bit confusing is how the indicators will behave during the recovery process after the four-hour high. Simply put, it is uncertain whether the market will behave like yesterday, with a slight pullback during the day followed by oscillation and then a continuation of the rise, or if the pullback will have some strength to correct the overbought indicators before making another high. Therefore, we need to consider two positions below: one is the short-term pullback area of 108500-109000, and the other is the position at 105000.
In terms of operations, it is indeed a bit challenging. At such a high position, I actually think both long and short positions can be taken. If considering a larger range for trading, the short position might be around 115000, while the long position could be at 105000. For smaller range trading, if we reach above 110000 again today, we can look for a small-level pullback, which carries relatively high risk, with the first pullback being in the 108500-109000 range.
Ethereum has recently been able to keep up with the upward trend. Although it has not broken through the major resistance at 2800, for the upcoming market, if Bitcoin continues to rise, Ethereum will definitely reach above 3000, as there is market demand for this. Therefore, if Ethereum pulls back to the 2550-2580 position, it is still a good opportunity to go long.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies. Feel free to contact and discuss the market.】
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