Recently, Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy and a staunch supporter of Bitcoin, downplayed the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin in an interview with CNBC, calling it a "marketing gimmick" and emphasizing that the adaptability of the Bitcoin protocol is sufficient to address future risks. However, industry experts and research institutions hold differing views, warning that the quantum threat may be more urgent than anticipated.
Will quantum computing shake the foundations of Bitcoin?
The "Threat" of Quantum Computing: The Gap Between Theory and Reality
The potential threat of quantum computing arises from its supercomputing capabilities, particularly the challenges posed by Shor's algorithm and Grover's algorithm to traditional encryption systems. The Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) and SHA-256 hash algorithm that Bitcoin relies on could theoretically be broken by quantum computers. Shor's algorithm can solve large integer factorization and discrete logarithm problems at an exponential speed, threatening the public key-private key mechanism, which could lead to the reverse engineering of private keys and jeopardize the security of digital wallets. Grover's algorithm could accelerate attacks on hash algorithms, although the threat level is relatively lower.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, researchers warn that quantum attacks could cause over $30 trillion in losses to the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin potentially becoming the "primary target" for quantum hackers due to its decentralized nature.
Saylor pointed out in the CNBC interview that the threat of quantum computing is exaggerated. He believes that tech giants like Google and Microsoft will not develop quantum computers capable of breaking modern encryption technologies, as this would not only destroy Bitcoin but also threaten the banking system, internet infrastructure, and even national security.
He stated, "This is just a marketing tactic to promote 'quantum concept tokens.'" One fact is that to reach the scale needed to break ECDSA, quantum computing would require stable computational power of at least millions of qubits, while the most advanced quantum chips currently have only 105 qubits, indicating that a real threat is still a decade or more away.
Bitcoin's Response Strategy: Protocol Upgrades and Quantum-Resistant Technology
Saylor emphasized that Bitcoin, as a dynamic protocol, has the flexibility to respond to quantum threats. He noted that the Bitcoin protocol undergoes software upgrades annually and has historically resolved security issues through soft forks or hard forks.
Bitcoin developers have submitted improvement proposals (BIPs) suggesting the migration of existing wallet addresses to quantum-resistant addresses through hard forks to defend against potential quantum attacks. Additionally, startups like BTQ are developing quantum-resistant hardware to provide extra protection for blockchain networks. Saylor believes these technological advancements are sufficient to build a defensive barrier for Bitcoin before quantum threats become a reality.
X user @SwissHodler stated, "Quantum risk is not unique to Bitcoin; banks and tech giants face threats as well. The Bitcoin community is already researching countermeasures, so there is no need to panic." User @AlexOttaBTC echoed Saylor's viewpoint, stating that he "burst the panic bubble around quantum computing" and pointed out that Bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it more resilient when upgrading protocols.
However, a recent report from Presto Research warns that the crypto industry is underprepared for quantum threats and may underestimate the speed of technological breakthroughs. The report indicates that the rapid development of quantum computing could pose substantial challenges to blockchain security within the next 5 to 10 years. Particularly for Bitcoin, quantum-resistant upgrades face two major challenges: first, the consensus mechanism of a decentralized network makes protocol changes time-consuming; second, all Bitcoin holders must actively migrate their assets to new addresses, or they may still face the risk of theft.
A Greater Threat: Phishing Rather Than Quantum Computing
Saylor also mentioned in the interview that the biggest security threat currently facing Bitcoin is not quantum computing, but phishing attacks. In 2024, the Web3 industry suffered over $2.3 billion in losses due to phishing attacks and private key leaks, far exceeding the theoretical threat posed by quantum computing.
Saylor believes that poor management of users' private keys and security vulnerabilities in exchanges are more pressing issues than distant quantum risks. The "2024 Annual Security Report" shows that phishing and private key leaks are the biggest pain points in Web3 security.
X user @CryptosR_Us remarked, "If quantum computing could break Bitcoin, banks, nuclear systems, and the entire internet would collapse first. Saylor is right; the current concern should be phishing attacks."
Conclusion: Cautiously Optimistic, Proactive Defense
The threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin currently remains at a theoretical level and is unlikely to pose substantial risks in the short term.
In the contest between quantum computing and blockchain, Bitcoin's decentralized nature and community resilience will be its greatest strengths.
As Saylor stated, "Bitcoin is an evolving protocol." As long as the community remains vigilant and technology continues to iterate, Bitcoin is expected to stand firm in the quantum era. However, as Presto Research warns, excessive optimism could leave the industry caught off guard. The future's outcome will depend on the race between technology and time.
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