BALL Explodes, But Transparency of Its Mechanism Raises Questions

On the morning of June 3, an unusual asset suddenly emerged on the Solana chain—Powerball (BALL).

CA: BALLrveijbhu42QaS2XW1pRBYfMji73bGeYJghUvQs6y

This token, which focuses on "lottery draws on-chain," attracted a large number of on-chain gamblers with its "hourly draws." According to GMGN, its market cap skyrocketed from a million to $19 million (see the first image below), before plummeting to under $2 million in just a few hours (see the second image below), then rebounding again as FOMO erupted, with the market cap nearing its previous high (see the third image below), resembling a roller coaster of on-chain sentiment.

The peak occurred at 17:00 on June 3 (around the first point in the image), with a prize pool of 1611.88 SOL (approximately $245,732), awarded to the address “5qLjEfQtuuspKPfJQjC1xG6KZMEJoWNMBPqp1GGN8K76.” However, according to GMGN, this address last purchased other tokens 300 days ago. Upon hearing this news, some in the community considered the winner extremely lucky, while others questioned insider manipulation, leading to a wave of sell-offs and a sharp drop in BALL's price.

A community user (@realdrpump) raised several doubts, pointing out that the lottery mechanism is not entirely transparent and is not as fully automated as claimed by the official sources:

However, the allure of on-chain lotteries lies in the fact that: when the price is low enough, many people eager to win start "bottom-fishing," and the snowball effect begins again. Even with various doubts, while you are still criticizing the project, the market cap has rebounded from its low to $18 million, almost returning to its peak.

What is BALL? A On-Chain Version of Traditional Lottery

Powerball (BALL) is an hourly lottery based on Solana, with a very simple and direct mechanism:

• Every 10,000 BALL counts as one lottery entry;

• Draws occur every hour, with the system automatically awarding the entire prize pool to one winner;

• The prize pool is funded by transaction taxes: a 5% fee on both buying and selling, with 10% going to the development team and the remainder entering a unified prize pool address.

It is important to note that winning is not based on equal probability but is calculated according to the amount held.

In just 48 hours after BALL's launch:

• Highest market cap: $19 million;

• Largest single prize pool: 1611.88 SOL;

• Maximum price fluctuation approached 90%.

Emergence of Imitators

1. LOTTO (7cC5S2uoKB5nQofua8Mobdd7bnf7uGiM8WiLJc8a1MGJ)

LOTTO appeared before BALL, and unlike BALL, LOTTO draws every half hour, with a major prize drawn every 24 hours, and 5% of each buy and sell goes into the prize pool.

After BALL sparked a frenzy for on-chain lotteries, LOTTO gained attention, reaching a market cap of $1.7 million. Notably, LOTTO, which had nearly gone to zero, saw a small rally on June 6. I suspect this was due to large holders bottom-fishing and driving the price up, with its market cap peaking close to $800,000.

2. MILLIONS (EqUJWhw3WHCrEEfcPVDigSkGapNfYWY2cuzRo6437obu)

MEGA MILLIONS (MILLIONS) charges an 8% fee on each buy and sell, with 10% going to the dev team, 86% distributed to winners, and 2% burned. Holding 100,000 MILLIONS is required to participate in the lottery, with a peak market cap of $1 million, which later fluctuated around $200,000 as the leading BALL declined. Like LOTTO, it experienced a second rally on June 5, but this was also unsustainable, with a peak market cap of $700,000.

3. ULUCKY (0xb8a767005f91f0cac94c4bfb552386e072fe1bad)

USD1LUCKY (ULUCKY) is a lottery imitation on the BSC chain, which briefly surged to a market cap of $500,000 after launch, but quickly fell. However, as the leading BALL approached new highs, it triggered FOMO, with its market cap once reaching $1.8 million. Its mechanism is also quite simple, with automatic hourly draws.

4. EPOT (0xd39368a84a07f6f52a63e7872d90fdbcbd7553b4)

Ether pot (EPOT) is an imitation on ETH. Due to higher gas fees and lower liquidity on the ETH chain, the sentiment has fermented more slowly, leading to a later emergence of this project.

Each EPOT token counts as one lottery entry, with a 5% fee on each transaction, of which 3% goes to a 30-minute prize pool, 1% to a 24-hour super prize pool, and another 1% allocated for development and marketing from the total fees.

Additionally, it seems that ETH chain players do not have a strong "gambling" mentality, and after a wave of excitement, it has completely fallen out of focus.

On-Chain Lottery: The Ultimate Form of Speculation?

BALL, like its name, is a lottery and also a huge snowball. When someone wants to win the jackpot, there will be trading; the larger the trading volume, the bigger and more enticing the prize. Web3 is never short of gamblers, and on-chain, this speculation and FOMO mentality are amplified infinitely, rolling this snowball to nearly $20 million.

However, it is predictable that when the market cap is too high, the cost of buying lottery tickets becomes too high, and no one wants to take over, leading to significant volatility. When the price is low enough and sentiment is still present, people will start bottom-fishing.

Unlike typical dividend tokens, BALL does not advocate "wealth equality," but rather "getting rich quickly." Dividend tokens allow everyone to share a little, while BALL throws all the profits to one person at once. This possibility of "getting rich quickly" is the ultimate pursuit of on-chain players.

At the same time, gamblers are also fickle and profit-driven; no matter how fresh the gameplay or enticing the returns, they cannot escape the fact that it is still fundamentally a Meme. Memes are the most outstanding speculative tools, and few will engage in value investing on Memes. Currently, BALL's market cap fluctuates between $2 million and $4 million, I believe this round of lottery frenzy has come to an end, and similar products will struggle to continue.

Personally, I have been deeply involved in Memes on BSC recently, and my grasp of the market cap and on-chain sentiment of Memes on the Solana chain is not very good, leading to a "fear of heights" when facing BALL, watching it rise all the way. My colleague Harbour also reminded me: “Just because it’s not a new concept doesn’t mean it won’t rise.” Yes, as long as it can trigger emotional resonance and FOMO, combined with the recent on-chain sentiment, estimating its peak market cap does not require fear of heights. Therefore, to become a professional p player, one must spend more time sitting idle, scanning the chain, and continue doing so. This time, the heat of BALL lasted nearly 12 hours, which is quite long on-chain.

Odaily Editorial Team's Related Operations Review

On June 3 at 12:00, when BALL had a market cap of $1 million, I shared the CA in a small group, then watched as BALL surged to nearly $20 million by 16:00, missing the opportunity entirely. My colleague golem entered at $4 million, exiting with three times the profit.

Later, I discovered an on-chain lottery project, LOTTO, which was ahead of BALL, and entered around 16:20 at a market cap of $170,000. Within 10 minutes, it doubled, and I exited completely. After that, its market cap soared to $1.7 million; although I did not miss out entirely, I did leave a lot on the table.

The imitation on BSC, ULUCKY, was released around 16:00 that day, quickly rising to a market cap of $500,000, but just about 15 minutes later, it nearly went to zero. At this point, both my colleague 南枳 and I cut our losses, and we did not participate in the subsequent second wave of growth that began around 23:00, where its market cap once surged to $1.8 million. Not bottom-fishing during this time can be considered a "knee-slapper."

Risk Warning: This article does not constitute investment advice. On-chain Memes are highly volatile and carry significant speculation and risk; please be sure to DYOR and participate cautiously. As of the time of publication, the heat of BALL has dissipated, and similar products are nearing zero…

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