Original Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
The cryptocurrency market is changing rapidly. On June 5th at around 8 PM, BTC nearly approached $106,000 but fell continuously after failing to break through. By around 4 AM on June 6th, BTC dipped to $100,372, almost breaking below the $100,000 mark, and has now rebounded to around $102,000. ETH has consistently failed to break through $2,800 and also fell sharply last night, hitting a low of $2,381, with a 24-hour decline of over 7%. Altcoins have also seen widespread declines.
In terms of contract data, according to Coinglass, the total liquidation across the network in the last 24 hours reached $983 million, with long positions accounting for $892 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on Bitmex - XBTUSD, valued at $10 million.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 108.00 points to 42,319.74 points, a decline of 0.25%; the S&P 500 index fell by 31.51 points to 5,939.30 points, a decline of 0.53%; the Nasdaq fell by 162.04 points to 19,298.45 points, a decline of 0.83%. Tesla dropped over 14% due to a conflict between Musk and Trump, marking the largest single-day decline in its history.
After BTC reached a historical high, altcoins did not continue to rise as expected, and the market's sustainability was once again disrupted. What are the reasons for this significant pullback?
Musk and Trump Clash
On June 4th, Musk publicly criticized a core bill pushed by the Trump administration on his social media platform X (formerly Twitter), calling it a "disgusting monstrosity." The world's richest man wrote, "I'm sorry, I just can't watch this anymore. This massive, absurd, and crammed-with-pork congressional bill is simply a disgusting monstrosity!" He even urged lawmakers to "kill the bill." Subsequently, Musk shared a tweet discussing "Trump should be impeached and replaced by JD Vance," commenting "Yes."
Trump did not back down, posting on his personal social media platform, "I don't mind Musk opposing me, but he should have done it months ago. This is one of the greatest bills ever submitted to Congress. It includes record spending cuts of $1.6 trillion and the largest tax cuts in history. If this bill doesn't pass, taxes will increase by 68%, and there are worse things to come. I didn't create this mess; I just came to fix it. This bill will put our country on the path to greatness. Make America great again!"
Due to the clash between Musk and Trump last night, Tesla's stock fell over 14%, resulting in a market value loss of $153 billion, marking the largest single-day market value drop in history. Musk holds about 12.8% of Tesla shares, and as a result, this portion of his stock has lost over $19.5 billion in value.
The confrontation between the richest and most powerful individuals on Earth has caused turmoil in both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market.
Investors Cashing Out After Bitcoin Hits New High
Recently, Bitcoin broke its historical high (ATH), leading to a significant increase in profit-taking, with an average profit of about 16% per Bitcoin. Less than 8% of trading days yield higher profits than this, indicating that investors are entering a clear profit-taking phase.
According to glassnode data, investors holding BTC for at least 12 months realized an average daily profit of over $1 billion last week—this is the fifth-largest increase in this cycle.
Renowned analyst Willy Woo also stated that whales holding over 10,000 Bitcoins have been selling since 2017. Most of these Bitcoins were purchased between $0 and $700 and have been held for 8 to 16 years.
The profit-taking by whales and traders undoubtedly creates significant selling pressure in the market. If buying interest is weak, a price decline is inevitable.
Summer Generally Performs Poorly, with June Average Returns at Only 1.9%
The cryptocurrency market often exhibits seasonal trends similar to the stock market. For instance, summer generally sees poor performance, while the end of the year and the beginning of the year tend to perform well.
Since 2020, BTC has often seen more declines than gains in June. Historical data shows that the average return in June is only 1.9%, with a 50% chance of an increase.
Under the market's mystical effects, some investors and traders choose to stay on the sidelines and observe.
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts May Be Delayed Until September
The Federal Reserve's delay in rate cuts has added a shadow to the already tense liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. Following the release of initial unemployment claims data last week, the prices of federal funds futures linked to the Fed's meeting have shown a shift to a dovish sentiment, with the market currently expecting a 100% chance of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. In the longer term, the market's expectation for the total rate cut this year has risen to 60 basis points, up from 56 basis points previously.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated in a speech on Sunday that he tends to believe that inflation caused by tariffs may be a one-time shock, and the Fed may still cut rates before the end of the year. However, other Fed officials believe that it cannot be asserted at this time, and rate cuts must be approached with caution.
One of this year's "voting members," Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, stated at an event in Iowa on Tuesday that it cannot be asserted that the impact of tariffs on inflation is only temporary. Current inflation data may not yet reflect the impact of tariffs, complicating the Fed's task of assessing future inflation trends.
Future Trends
On May 30th, Willy Woo stated that if Bitcoin does not show a rebound in the next two and a half days, it will form a bearish divergence on the weekly chart, and the market may enter a prolonged period of stagnation. He jokingly remarked, "We will feel bored for several weeks."
Weiss Crypto tweeted that BTC's short-term support range is between $98,000 and $94,000, with a major support/resistance level at $89,500.
Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio posted on his personal channel that "I am currently long on Ethereum, with a stop-loss set at this morning's low of $2,380 (this position is also the retest level of the mid-term timeframe bottom), and the technical structure is clear."
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
