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Today, it is still necessary to complain about the market in recent days; it's a situation even dogs wouldn't want to touch. There is almost no liquidity, and the price fluctuation range is ridiculously small. Is it that the liquidation zone has locked the market down? Or did the market die first, and then the liquidation zone shrank into this ghostly state?

Let me give you the conclusion first. From my personal perspective, the market for today and tomorrow looks like this: if it explodes upwards, it might reach 108K at most; if it crashes downwards, hitting 101K directly is not a problem.

From the perspective of liquidation intensity, the downward clearing force is obviously stronger. But the problem is, the price is still stubbornly holding above the June 2nd level of 103.6K. You say it’s oscillating, but it really is as steady as a mountain.

So the current strategy is simple: if the price tests the bottom in the liquidation zone but does not explode upwards, then don’t hesitate, go for 108K! The same logic applies in reverse; if it doesn’t clear above, there will definitely be a reversal, and those who understand will know.

To be honest, I’m quite speechless about the current market. Every time we hit a non-farm payroll week, the market feels like it’s already holding a memorial service—silent, low volume, and sideways, giving no imagination at all. If you’re going to be sideways, at least have some basis for it; it’s just playing dead every day.

Moreover, there are more realistic issues ahead. The first is liquidity; since May 24th, it’s like the faucet has been turned off, and daily trading volume has become ghostly. Secondly, the main players have long finished unloading; after May 22nd, large holders have basically run away with 85%. Don’t think they will come back to lift the market.

Thirdly, the long-short ratio has skyrocketed. Since May 31st, more and more people are bullish, yet the market is becoming increasingly constrained. This is typical; it can’t go up, and no one wants to short.

Furthermore, the situation with ETH is not optimistic either. The main contracts have already run out around 2700. But a large number of institutions are increasing their spot holdings, making the market look strong, but it’s actually a false prosperity that could be dragged down by Bitcoin at any time.

So why am I pessimistic about the market in July and August? It’s simple; don’t expect interest rate cuts just yet. If they do cut, it might actually be the last chance to buy at a golden dip. No one wants to push a cart full of dead bulls uphill before a rise because it’s too heavy!

In fact, most of the time, Bitcoin follows the same script, yet some people still step in. When it really hits the bottom, it’s all curses; no one dares to buy, and no one is optimistic. However, when you look back, it’s only been two months since 76K; don’t you think, “Damn, I should have bought back then?”

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 106800

First Resistance Level: 106000

Support Level Reference:

Second Support Level: 104000

First Support Level: 102900

Today's Suggestions:

Before yesterday's close, I focused on the 200-day moving average and the upward trend line on the 4-hour chart. Although a short-term rebound can be seen in the current range, it has consistently failed to break the downward trend line, so bearish sentiment is gradually increasing.

Given that the bearish viewpoint is stronger than before, it is more prudent to wait for directional confirmation at the end of the triangle convergence before entering the market. If the previous target was to hold 106K to maintain a bullish outlook, then the target should now be adjusted down to 105K before considering entry.

Currently, the first resistance near 106K has evolved into a strong pressure point. Unless overall risk assets start to warm up or there is a clear upward momentum, it will be difficult to break through in the short term. During this phase, short-term adjustments remain the focus.

If the 200-day moving average and the upward trend line on the 4-hour chart can hold, we might see a small-scale rebound, but such a rebound is unlikely to form a substantial breakthrough. Be cautious of profit-taking and emotional selling that may occur during oscillations, and it is advisable to quickly take profits with a short-term mindset.

If the first support at 104K is broken in the short term, emotional selling may accelerate the decline, directly opening up space to the second support at 102.9K. We are currently at the end of the triangle convergence, and the direction is still unclear, so it is recommended to observe before entering the market.

Although the 200-day moving average on the 4-hour level can serve as a reference for stop-loss and take-profit, if there is no significant lower shadow forming a bottoming pattern at the 200-day moving average, we should be wary of potential further declines, and short-term operations are advisable.

6.5 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Buy in batches in the 102900-104000 range, Target: 106000-106800

Short Entry Reference: Sell in batches in the 106000-106800 range, Target: 104000-102900

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (WeChat public account: Coin God Master Chen). If you want to learn more about real-time investment strategies, liquidation, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can add Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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