As BTC soars to $112,000, the financial markets are undergoing a historic reassessment of global bond yields and the dollar exchange rate, which is one of the key drivers behind BTC's recent surge to $112,000.

BTC Price Uptrend Deepened by Asian Macroeconomic Drivers

Although officials from several Asian countries deny any coordinated intervention in exchange rates to address the U.S. trade deficit, emphasizing that the current currency trends are mainly due to life insurance companies and export firms hedging their large dollar exposures, the overall trend of currency appreciation continues. As Asian currencies strengthen, their economic impact becomes increasingly evident: this change may put significant pressure on regional economic growth in the coming months.

Similar to the rebound in U.S. stocks in mid-April, BTC's recent rise was initially seen as driven by Trump's fluctuating tariff rhetoric. However, most of his threats are now viewed as symbolic actions, and BTC's sustained uptrend is increasingly driven by deepening macroeconomic concerns in the Asian region. A key turning point occurred after the end of the U.S. earnings season, when American companies resumed buybacks, and the price premium of the Coinbase platform relative to other exchanges rapidly expanded, indicating a significant increase in bullish sentiment among U.S. investors as BTC broke through $87,000.

BTC Value Increasing, New "Whales" May Emerge

Despite MicroStrategy purchasing $4 billion worth of BTC in the past month, a real breakthrough occurred after May 7, following two weeks of market consolidation. Deeper driving factors may be emerging: the market seems to be evolving towards a more macroeconomic "endgame," with BTC increasingly becoming a core asset within it. The dominant force behind this uptrend is likely not MicroStrategy, but a more secretive yet equally powerful new buyer. Identifying this buyer and their capital strength may become key to assessing BTC's future direction.

Metaplanet Rises 190%, Japanese Retail Investors May Be the Main BTC Buyers

Japanese consumer confidence is significantly declining. The Bank of Japan drastically lowered its 2024 economic growth forecast from 1.1% to just 0.5% during its meeting on May 1. Weak demand for government bond auctions has accelerated the inflow of funds into the BTC market, with Japanese retail investors increasingly becoming a dominant force.

Since the Bank of Japan's announcement, Japan's cryptocurrency "shadow stock" Metaplanet has risen a cumulative 190%, with a market capitalization reaching $4.8 billion, representing a premium of up to 470% compared to its $845 million in BTC assets. Given that Japan has yet to approve a BTC ETF, and relevant regulatory policies are not expected to be introduced until next year at the earliest, the cost for investors to indirectly hold BTC through Metaplanet stock is approaching $600,000 per coin.

Considering its net asset valuation is inflated, and its market capitalization has skyrocketed from $40 million to $4.8 billion in just one year, investing in Metaplanet remains a highly speculative endeavor. Although the company currently holds about $845 million in BTC, its position size is still far below that of MicroStrategy. Despite the lack of interest in Google search trends, the Japanese market remains worth close attention—clearly, funds are quietly and continuously building positions. Increasing signs indicate that the main buying force for BTC comes from Asia—its major gains are typically concentrated during Asian trading hours.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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