Guilin is still trapped in the mindset of a traditional cryptocurrency trader. This mindset might have been fine in the first half of 2024, as the market has certain patterns and there are rhythms to grasp outside of events. However, as of today, it has become a time when "event-driven" factors outweigh "liquidity-driven" factors.

If we only look at trading volume without considering price trends, it would be very difficult for me to guess what kind of changes the price of $BTC could undergo this year. This is because the current market has shifted from "To funds" to "To Trump," and Trump's personal influence has greatly surpassed the impact of liquidity.

The reason previous presidents did not have such a strong influence on the market is that these individuals are essentially politicians. Politicians care about their image; after Powell misjudged the pace of interest rate hikes, he abandoned forward-looking predictions. However, for Trump, as long as there are sufficient "interests," changing his stance at any moment is not out of the question.

Therefore, the difficulty in the current market lies in the fact that fundamentals are not very important anymore; rather, it is more crucial to pay attention to when Trump is happy and what he says.

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