Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina_)
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The compliant stablecoin giant Circle may become the first beneficiary after the passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill, the "GENIUS Act."
On May 27, Circle disclosed the latest progress of its NYSE IPO application, stating that it will issue 24 million Class A shares, of which 9.6 million shares will be issued by the company and 14.4 million shares will come from existing shareholders. The expected pricing range is between $24 and $26 per share, allowing Circle to raise nearly $250 million, while the selling shareholders may receive nearly $375 million for their shares.
Circle's disclosed target valuation is $6.71 billion, higher than the previous estimated range of $4-5 billion. Although Circle's IPO progress remains smooth, the final outcome is still uncertain, as Circle will continue to face inquiries from the U.S. SEC in the next 3-5 months. Meanwhile, the recognition of cryptocurrencies in the mainstream U.S. capital markets is rising, but companies on the verge of delisting are "shelling" to boost stock prices, creating an urgent need for more truly high-quality "crypto stocks" in the U.S. mainstream capital markets…
A 7-Year Journey to Going Public
Looking back, Circle's path to going public resembles a large fantasy novel, with the protagonist enduring 7 years of hardships and finally achieving ascension.
The Birth of the IPO Idea, Encountering a Bear Market Waterloo
Circle's IPO idea first emerged in 2018 when it launched the stablecoin USDC and acquired the cryptocurrency exchange Poloniex. In the same year, Circle secured $110 million in funding from institutions such as Bitmain, IDG Capital, and Breyer Capital, reaching a valuation of $3 billion.
However, the sudden bear market in 2019 caught everyone off guard, causing Circle's valuation to plummet by 75% to $750 million, forcing it to sell Poloniex to Justin Sun. In this crisis, Circle's IPO plans naturally fell through.
Attempting to Go Public via SPAC Merger, Struck by Regulatory Iron Fist
By 2021, after two years of compliance exploration and business development, USDC had become the second most influential stablecoin product in the market after USDT, allowing Circle's IPO plans to surface again. On July 8, 2021, Circle announced it would go public through a SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) called Concord Acquisition Corp, with the ticker "CRCL," and a valuation of $4.5 billion. Although the cryptocurrency market was recovering at this time, regulatory hostility towards crypto had not dissipated, and Circle sought to avoid traditional IPO scrutiny through a reverse merger.
However, Circle's IPO plans once again fell through. In July 2021, Circle publicly stated that it had received a subpoena from the U.S. SEC, requiring Circle to prove that USDC is not a security. After a series of lengthy regulatory disputes and transaction delays, Circle announced the termination of its SPAC merger plans in December 2022.
Despite this setback and the ongoing "regulatory iron fist" from the SEC, Circle did not give up. CEO Jeremy Allaire stated after the failed plan, "Circle remains committed to becoming a publicly traded company in the long term." In June 2023, Circle once again hired corporate legal advisors to "assist with the potential listing process."
Continuously Submitting IPO Applications, Persisting for Years to See the Dawn
At the beginning of 2024, perhaps having learned from the second failure, Circle chose a more traditional route and secretly submitted an IPO application in January of the same year, without disclosing the number of shares to be sold or the proposed price range for the new IPO. This IPO application was extremely low-key, and after being reported by the media, the company refused to comment on any contact with the SEC or other regulatory agencies, instead focusing on strengthening personnel configuration and stabilizing financial conditions to improve the chances of IPO approval.
After a long wait, on April 2, 2025, Circle submitted its S-1 filing to the U.S. SEC again, intending to list on the NYSE under the ticker "CRCL," although the IPO pricing range had not yet been announced. According to subsequent market news, Circle was still delaying the IPO. On May 20, Circle stated that it was still advancing its IPO plans, targeting a valuation of at least $5 billion, and had already rejected acquisition offers from Coinbase and Ripple.
Finally, on May 28, 2025, Circle updated its IPO listing details, stating that it would issue 24 million Class A shares, with 9.6 million shares issued by the company and 14.4 million shares from existing shareholders, with an expected pricing range of $24 to $26 per share. According to a Reuters report, Circle's target valuation is $6.71 billion.
Although this update did not specify a concrete IPO listing date, Cathie Wood's ARK Investment has already expressed interest in purchasing $150 million worth of Circle's stock in the IPO.
Is Circle's Listing Now a Done Deal?
Over the years, Circle has made many compliance efforts to fulfill its wish to go public, such as implementing a more transparent auditing mechanism, obtaining a New York State virtual currency business license (BitLicense), issuing the euro stablecoin EUROC, and complying with MiCA requirements. So, is the result of this IPO application already a done deal?
Although Circle has officially submitted its IPO application, there are still several necessary processes before it can officially trade on the NYSE:
- SEC Review and Effectiveness of Registration Statement
Submitting the application does not mean it is effective; Circle also pointed out in its latest Form S-1 that "this offering is subject to market conditions and there is no guarantee of when or if the offering will be completed." Additionally, before the listing, the SEC must inquire about its registration statement (Comment Letter) and confirm that there are no major objections, after which the registration statement can become "effective." Inquiries typically go through one to two rounds and can take 3 to 5 months to complete.
- Roadshow Pricing and Over-Allotment Option
After the SEC approves the effectiveness, Circle's underwriting syndicate (including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, etc.) will conduct a short-term roadshow to gauge institutional investor demand and determine the final offering price. Circle has also granted underwriters the option to over-allot up to 3.6 million shares within 30 days.
- Official Trading Listing
Only on the day after the pricing is completed (usually one trading day after the pricing date) will CRCL shares be listed on the NYSE. At this point, Circle's IPO will be considered truly realized.
In summary, submitting the IPO application is just a "knock on the door." As of now, Circle's IPO success cannot be said to be a done deal. However, in terms of market and regulatory environment, as long as the Federal Reserve's policies remain stable, regulatory attitudes towards the crypto industry remain friendly, and there are no significant market fluctuations or black swan events during the SEC's inquiry period in the coming weeks, the probability of Circle's successful listing could reach over 80%.
Mainstream Capital Markets Urgently Need True "Crypto Stocks"
If Circle's listing on the NYSE ultimately succeeds, it will be a milestone for the entire crypto market and will deepen the mainstream asset market's recognition of the crypto industry.
If Circle successfully goes public, it will also encourage other crypto companies to actively pursue IPO applications. Several crypto companies have previously expressed their desire to go public:
Kraken: Since Coinbase's successful listing in 2021, Kraken has been eager to follow suit but has faced multiple failures. According to Bloomberg, it is actively preparing for an IPO in the first quarter of 2026;
Gemini: The cryptocurrency exchange Gemini hinted at an IPO as early as 2021, and there are even rumors that it has secretly submitted an IPO application and is working with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup to advance, potentially going public as early as 2025;
Bullish: The cryptocurrency exchange Bullish also intended to go public via SPAC in 2021, but the plan was ultimately shelved.
BitGo: The U.S. crypto custody company BitGo is also considering an IPO as early as the second half of 2025.
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With the passage of the stablecoin bill and the Trump administration continuously releasing positive signals for the crypto market, the mainstream U.S. capital markets are also being incentivized to invest in the crypto industry. "The U.S. stock market is willing to pay more than $2 for a $1 crypto asset," and the madness displayed by mainstream capital markets towards the crypto industry is gradually becoming apparent. However, it is undeniable that the types of crypto assets that investors encounter in the U.S. mainstream capital markets are still limited, so they can only invest in some stocks related to crypto, such as companies actively building crypto reserves.
However, this also provides an opportunity for junk U.S. stocks on the verge of delisting, buying and holding a small amount of crypto assets to boost stock prices and enhance their own valuations (Related reading: Bloomberg Chief Financial Writer: The Underlying Logic of U.S. Listed Companies Crazy Buying Crypto). But the fundamentals of these companies have not changed; there is only one Strategy in the world, and this trick will ultimately be seen through by the mainstream capital markets, potentially harming the real crypto industry.
It is urgent to bring more truly high-quality "crypto stocks" into the U.S. mainstream capital markets.
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