The information, opinions, and judgments regarding the market, projects, currencies, etc., mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.
The market dividends since the "Tariff War" entered its third phase have been nearly exhausted.
With the "Beautiful Big Plan" led by Trump receiving approval from the House of Representatives, the "U.S. Debt Crisis" has once again cooled the market's bullish enthusiasm. Coupled with Trump's statement about imposing excessive tariffs on the EU again, the U.S. is experiencing a "Stock, Bond, and Currency" triple kill scenario.
Due to capital inflows and the passage of the "Stablecoin Act," BTC saw a surge in bullish sentiment in the first half of the week, breaking through the "Trump Bottom" to set a historical new high in dollar terms.
While capital inflows increased, so did selling, but the overall selling pressure remains small, indicating that BTC is still under the dominance of upward momentum, and a temporary adjustment may end at any time.
Policy, Macro Finance, and Economic Data
Since May, the framework for global risk traders has gradually adjusted back to the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and employment, as well as the game of interest rate policy. This week, the "gray rhino" looming over the U.S. economy and financial markets has reappeared as a threat.
The "Beautiful Big Plan" is a comprehensive fiscal legislation strongly promoted by U.S. President Trump, officially named the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." This bill covers multiple areas, including taxation, immigration, healthcare, and border security, aiming to achieve Trump's governance agenda through tax cuts and policy reforms. On May 22, the bill was approved by the U.S. House of Representatives and has been submitted to the Senate for review.
The bill involves many areas, and the expansion of spending and reduction of taxes will ultimately require raising the U.S. debt ceiling to $40 trillion. This raises the U.S. debt ceiling from the current $36.1 trillion to $40.1 trillion. At that time, the maximum debt will reach 140% of GDP, setting a historical high.
This has led the market to further pessimism regarding the U.S. government's ability and willingness to repay debt, causing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries to decline further. Currently, U.S. Treasuries have lost all top ratings from the three major rating agencies.
In response to the "Beautiful Big Plan," the anchor for global asset pricing, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond, jumped back above 4.5% this week. High Treasury yields will undoubtedly increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, suppress investment and consumption, and ultimately affect corporate profitability, putting pressure on the stock market.
Affected by the House of Representatives' approval of the "Beautiful Big Plan," the three major stock indices halted their rebound since the tariff war reversal this week, showing a downward trend: Nasdaq -2.47%, S&P 500 -2.61%, Dow Jones -2.47%.
The U.S. dollar index also turned down 1.03% after four consecutive weeks of gains, to 99.1252.
Gold has once again become a beneficiary. London gold rose 1.98% during the week, reaching $3359.90 per ounce.
The final approval of the "Beautiful Big Plan" will take time, and its dynamics will undoubtedly become a significant variable affecting the financial market in the near future.
Cryptocurrency Market
Due to significant inflows into the BTC Spot ETF channel, increased holdings by listed companies, and the passage of the "Genius Act," BTC has been enveloped in optimistic sentiment, achieving a 7-week consecutive rise.
Before the panic sentiment triggered by the House of Representatives' approval of the "Beautiful Big Plan" spread, BTC achieved a historical breakthrough, setting a historical record in dollar pricing—$112,000 per coin.
From a technical indicator perspective, it operated above the 5-week line throughout the week, with trading volume increasing, and the weekly MACD just rising above water. BTC's price operated above the first upward trend line for the entire week and tested the upper edge of the "Trump Bottom" (90,000~110,000).
From a technical pattern perspective, BTC is still in a mid-term upward trend, but affected by the "Stock, Bond, and Currency" triple kill, and having achieved significant gains over several days, market bullish sentiment may experience some adjustments over a certain period.
On May 19, the Senate passed a procedural vote with a 66-32 margin, marking the imminent establishment of the U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework. From a policy impact perspective, the "Genius Act" (the "2025 U.S. Stablecoin Innovation Guidance and Establishment Act") may be comparable to the approval of the BTC Spot ETF in 2024.
The "Genius Act" defines the criteria for dollar stablecoins, including regulation, auditing, consumer protection, and underlying asset requirements (such as dollar cash, short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and other highly liquid assets). Although the U.S. aims to promote the development of its domestic blockchain industry and maintain the international status of the dollar, increasing the dollar's penetration rate and alleviating the issuance pressure of U.S. Treasuries to some extent, it will undoubtedly also promote the development of stablecoins as the second major application of blockchain beyond BTC.
On May 21, the Hong Kong Legislative Council officially passed the "Stablecoin Bill," establishing a comprehensive licensing and regulatory framework for fiat-referenced stablecoins (FRS).
We believe that in terms of application scope and number of holders, stablecoins are likely to surpass BTC. The positive progress in stablecoins in the U.S. and Hong Kong indicates that, in addition to value storage, the blockchain industry based on smart contract platforms and DApp applications, or the Web3 segment, is also being recognized by governments around the world. This is particularly important for the industry.
Capital Inflows and Outflows
Although the "Stock, Bond, and Currency" triple kill has once again hurt the U.S. stock market, the trading enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency market seems to remain unaffected.
For seven consecutive trading days, there has been positive capital inflow, totaling $5.574 billion for the week, including $2.548 billion in stablecoins, $2.775 billion in BTC Spot ETF, and $250 million in ETH Spot ETF.
Stablecoin and ETF channel capital inflow and outflow statistics (weekly)
Since the rebound from the bottom in early April, after a significant initial inflow of capital, there has been some hesitation after reaching $100,000. This week's significant inflow of capital has pushed BTC to challenge the historical high.
Selling Pressure and Sell-offs
Since BTC returned to the $100,000 mark, long-term holders have once again started to reduce their holdings, reversing the trend of gradually decreasing inflows to exchanges over the past five weeks. This week, the inflow of BTC to exchanges reached 159,869.37 coins. Centralized exchanges are still in an outflow state, with the remaining amount dropping to 2,987,307 coins, but the outflow speed has slowed down.
Centralized cryptocurrency exchange BTC inflow and outflow statistics (weekly)
As a market stabilizer, long-term holders initiated a reduction in holdings near the new high, with a total reduction of 1,195.43 coins during the week.
Cycle Indicators
According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is at 0.75, indicating an upward phase.
EMC Labs
EMC Labs was established in April 2023 by cryptocurrency asset investors and data scientists. It focuses on blockchain industry research and investments in the crypto secondary market, with industry foresight, insights, and data mining as its core competitiveness. It aims to participate in the thriving blockchain industry through research and investment, promoting the benefits of blockchain and crypto assets for humanity.
For more information, please visit: https://www.emc.fund
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
