Uncle Cat's summary of this week's events is quite comprehensive, so I'll organize it a bit according to my own thoughts:
The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are not very significant; first, it's from the March meeting, and secondly, it was before the tariffs were officially implemented, so its guiding role for the market is not substantial.
Nvidia's earnings report is almost like a compass for the AI sector, but it has only a limited impact. After all, Trump's influence on Nvidia is quite significant, as both tariffs and export restrictions will affect revenue.
However, restrictions began to ease in April, and the Middle East has increased its investment in the U.S. AI industry, but this will all reflect in the second quarter. Therefore, the impact on the market should also be short-term.
The GDP revision value, in my personal opinion, is not very meaningful, as the current market has not yet entered a recession phase. Especially in the first quarter, U.S. domestic purchasing power was affected by tariffs, which does not reflect the true GDP level.
On the morning of May 27, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will speak at the central bank's "New Challenges in Monetary Policy" conference, especially in the context of rising Japanese government bond yields and inflation. However, as long as there are no expectations for short-term interest rate hikes, the issue is not too significant.
The Texas Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill SB121 is not yet in the governor's hands because the state House of Representatives has amended the bill. It must pass the state Senate again before being sent to the governor for signature. Generally, the governor needs up to a week to decide. Therefore, the probability of it passing this week is not high.
The stablecoin bill, the GENIUS Act, is still far from success. The Senate's final formal voting has not yet begun, and this process must go through the House of Representatives again before reaching the president. There will also be a transition period of six months to a year, so there is still quite a long time ahead.
Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act has just passed the House of Representatives, but it still has to go through the entire process in the Senate. Although Trump has expressed strong support and plans to sign it on Independence Day (July 4), there is still considerable resistance, especially since the Senate needs to cast 60 votes to advance, which means at least 9 Democrats must agree.
On Friday, the U.S. April PCE data will be released, which is more important. Although it still does not involve the implemented tariff issues, it remains the inflation data that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about. If the PCE data is better than expected, it will help short-term market sentiment.
This week, there will also be auctions for 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year government bonds. Each auction essentially withdraws liquidity from the market, especially if the auctions do not go smoothly and yields need to be increased to attract funds, which will continue to raise the market's blood-sucking ability, just like last week's 10-year auction.
There has been no progress on the ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but today Trump also posted again condemning Putin, describing him with the capitalized word "CRAZY," and he believes Zelensky is pouring oil on the fire, calling for a ceasefire once more. However, whether a short-term ceasefire can be achieved remains a question mark for Putin.
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