The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui who talks about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome everyone to follow and like, and reject any market smoke bombs!

Today's article is not primarily about analysis, but rather a reflection on Lao Cui's entry into the coin circle! It can also be seen as an explanation for the past one and a half months of absence. Although the time was not long, it was very torturous for Lao Cui. Since entering the exchange in 2012, seeing the crowded hall, I was still very excited inside. When I was young, like everyone else, I fantasized about becoming Livermore, carefree Liu Qiang, or even the legendary Buffett at that time. The coin circle indeed provided this opportunity, but unfortunately, luck was not on my side. From initially holding about 50 bitcoins at an average price of around 4000, it all vanished with the P wallet's exit in 2020. I also experienced the explosion of platforms from 2016 to 2019, where many platforms with varying levels of quality collapsed. It can be said that Lao Cui encountered the peak period of customer loss platforms. This is the reason for being cautious about the entire coin circle and even the contract market. With the tightening of regulations, Lao Cui has personally experienced the improvement of the market. Although these problems still exist, the process of improvement is visibly apparent. Lao Cui has also experienced several publishing platforms, from the initial Coin World - Non-Small Number - Tencent - Fire Letter - Baijia. Most friends got to know Lao Cui starting from the Penguin platform, and I am very grateful for everyone's companionship. The coin circle is still here, so everyone should not be anxious.

Now, let's move on to today's main analysis. Bitcoin has finally returned to its peak, and it's time for us to start reviewing. Since the beginning of the year, Lao Cui has mentioned to everyone that we will enter a recovery phase later on, and many analysts have defined this round of correction as a bear market. Lao Cui's view is completely different. The peak of the last round of Bitcoin's bull market was around 74,000, while the starting point of this round of bull market is around 24,000 to 40,000 in 2024. Lao Cui defines a bear market as when it falls below the previous peak, and reaching the starting point of the previous round can announce the arrival of a new trend. Neither of these conditions has been met. Comparing the data, Bitcoin's recovery cycle is only 2-3 months, just around 74,000, and it has not encountered significant resistance in the recovery process. At this stage, judging the standard for 110,000, it can be considered officially stabilized. Normal trading conditions are such that there must be a breakthrough followed by the clearing of funds that do not belong to the market, advising speculative users to withdraw before stabilizing at a high point again. This wave of movement is a clearing of the previous bubble, which in traditional finance can only indicate that a new high is coming. The market after 110,000 can be considered the starting point for the next round, not the end of this round. Where exactly will the new high be? Lao Cui does not want to draw conclusions, and also hopes that everyone does not define the new high. What we can do now is to hold onto the spot and wait for growth, and we must be prepared to withdraw at any time. Most spot users are positioned around 80,000. Although Lao Cui has always had great confidence in Bitcoin, everyone must control risks within their acceptable range.

At the same time, Lao Cui's view on small coins is relatively pessimistic, but that does not mean small coins cannot be profitable. If your capital is insufficient among spot investments, small coins are still the preferred investment. Lao Cui views this with a dialectical mindset; previous explanations about small coins were only for users with sufficient funds. As long as you do not touch small coin contracts, there should not be too many problems. If your capital is only enough to buy one Bitcoin or less, you can choose Ethereum, SOL, or even BNB. Under current conditions, these coins are likely to rise with Bitcoin. Do not focus on a few specific coins; once the mindset of wanting to multiply your investment appears, the path of spot investment will not work for everyone. Normal coins will all follow Bitcoin, and you can also compare the top ten coins by market capitalization to see the entire coin circle. Basically, after Bitcoin leads the rise, other coins follow, and the condition for following is that Bitcoin is in a recovery phase. The requirements are quite high; the depth of recovery cannot be too large. Most coins follow the rise, but during the downward phase, they tend to lead the decline. Therefore, overall, small coins will rise one phase less than Bitcoin while also experiencing a larger drop than BTC. This is the reason for the slower initiation timing and faster decline timing. Comparing the two, the disadvantages of small coins in spot trading will emerge, with two missing amplitudes. You cannot judge by the starting point and ending node. Although the differences between the two are not large, the returns on small coins are definitely less than those on Bitcoin, and you will not be able to fully capture both amplitudes.

Returning to the depth issue that Lao Cui mentioned earlier, many friends who are stuck in short positions asked Lao Cui yesterday whether Bitcoin can return to the 80,000 era. Your demands are a bit excessive; there will be a depth of correction. This can be seen from the recent surge in Bitcoin and the rise of small coins, indicating that there are obvious issues with capital connection. Comparing only Ethereum and Bitcoin shows significant differences; under Bitcoin's continuous new highs, the funds left for Ethereum are basically just breaking a hundred points, and the required gap is getting larger. The depth of the mid-course correction is not as terrifying as everyone imagines. At this stage, Bitcoin indeed needs a wave of capital withdrawal before it can officially impact other coins. The growth of Bitcoin is not beneficial for the entire coin circle, but it is a good sign for its own development. It depends on how investment giants view this issue. In the case of madly absorbing funds, it will affect the development of small coins. Bitcoin does not need to correct too deeply; even if it stays at a high level for a while, Ethereum will maintain high-speed growth and return to previous highs. At the same time, Lao Cui is not optimistic about the high point breakthrough situation of the top ten coins by market capitalization. With the continuous improvement of regulations, coins in the coin circle will also stratify. This is a common problem in all financial markets, and this issue has been unresolved since ancient times. The disparity between the rich and the poor will become increasingly apparent in the future. At this stage, Bitcoin has already shown attributes of traditional finance, and what we need to do is accept this reality. Therefore, regarding the depth issue, we can only look at Bitcoin's high point breakthrough situation; the higher the high point, the deeper the correction. Currently, we can only see a correction of 10,000 to 20,000 points. It is important to note that Bitcoin is still continuously breaking through, so the depth will gradually increase.

Lao Cui's summary: Everyone should pay attention, as the end of tariffs and the impact of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year will create a completely different economic situation compared to the beginning of the year. The only thing that can influence the future trends of the coin circle is the strategy aspect. Trump is the biggest supporter; in terms of strategy, major issues will not arise. It depends on whether Trump still wants to make a profit in the coin circle. As long as there are no targeted strategies, the growth of the coin circle will be unstoppable. The best situation is always to focus on spot trading. For those who want to trade contracts but have insufficient funds, it is best to enter with small coins in spot. Abandon the previous mindset; Bitcoin is always in a bull market, and compared to the trends of previous years, the next two years will be the peak period for Bitcoin. Everyone should try to seize this opportunity. Regarding future layouts, Lao Cui would like to inform everyone that I have just broken even on SOL, and the average entry point for Ethereum is around 2400, while I have been continuously averaging down. Only Bitcoin has yielded substantial returns, with an average price around 80,000 to 90,000. Recently, Lao Cui will also lay out some entry points for contracts. If anyone has questions, feel free to message Lao Cui directly. For users who are stuck in positions, Lao Cui can only say one thing: no operation is better than timely stop-loss. The difference between locking in and stopping loss is not significant; you must learn to let go and focus more energy on the next trade.

Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and strategizes for the big picture, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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