Bitcoin has been consolidating for 10 days, continuing to push upwards yesterday and today, breaking through the 110,000 high with a peak of 111,866. Currently, it is still quite strong, and the price must not fall back below 106,000. A few days ago, I mentioned two possible trends, and it seems we are following the latter. The shark pattern at 0.886 has not completed its reversal; if it continues to rise, we need to pay attention to 1.13, which is the resistance around 113,000 to 114,000, and it is very close. However, there are still no top signals appearing, so we can only follow the trend.
The U.S. stock market has basically completed the 0.886 retracement as I expected, and the Nasdaq index has fallen near the rebound trend line as I mentioned. Therefore, we need to pay attention to whether Bitcoin's strong upward movement is driven by institutions or if it is a trap for retail investors; it must not fall back below 106,000. Another possibility is that large funds are flowing out of the U.S. tech sector and into Bitcoin, which cannot be ruled out, indicating the start of an independent market 🔛
In February, I warned of a "black swan" event that would lead to a sharp decline in the U.S. stock market, which would also affect Bitcoin. I suggested buying in batches at 76,000 and 85,000, and when the subsequent candlesticks formed, I reminded to add positions near 78,000 and 85,000 twice. However, I believe the rebound has completed the shark pattern at 0.886, which may lead to a pullback, so I advised reducing some positions. Currently, the 5-7% upward space is not good for chasing; if you chase, it should only be with a small position, and a pullback would provide a better entry opportunity.
Bitcoin
If it breaks through the shark pattern at 0.886 and continues upwards, it will test 1.13, which is around 113,000 to 114,000. The daily line has broken through the historical high, and there is currently no pressure above, just a vast sea of stars. At the beginning of the year, I predicted that the peak of this bull market would be between 180,000 and 250,000 USD. I will always be bullish and always tearfully optimistic. Even if the bear market later drops to tens of thousands of dollars, I will still be bullish without hesitation. The benefits of Bitcoin will gradually diminish in the last 2-3 rounds of bull markets; this is unquestionable, as there is nothing new under the sun.
Returning to the smaller time frames, the daily MACD has a bottom divergence and is crossing the zero axis again, indicating that it still needs to rise in the short term. After a crazy washout below 107,000 on the 4-hour chart, it continues to rise. Currently, there are still no signs of a pullback, and we need to observe further.
Support: 104,000—107,000
Resistance: 113,000—122,000
Ethereum
Ethereum spiked to 2312 and then rebounded, breaking through the descending channel. It is now back below the previous spike, and I still expect it to catch up.
BTC D is rebounding close to the lower boundary of the range, and in the short term, it will continue to oscillate within the range. Given Bitcoin's strong performance, I expect a short-term pullback in BTCD, but I do not believe this is a signal for altcoins to start moving; altcoins are still in a state of oversold rebound, with sectors taking turns to catch up.
For altcoins: SOL, STX, DOGE, FLOKI, SUSHI can be monitored.
Support: 2312—2544
Resistance: 2738—2865—3200
If you like my views, please like, comment, and share. Let's navigate through the bull and bear markets together!!!
This article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it will be updated in real-time.
Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Public account: BTC Trading Master Fusu
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