Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Fidelity Executive: Bitcoin (BTC) Trading Enters Six-Figure Territory, Ready to Take the 'Baton' from Gold”
Bitcoin (BTC) prices have stabilized above $100,000, and Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Global Macro Director, suggests that this cryptocurrency may re-establish its position as a leading competitor for value storage.
Jurrien Timmer's latest analysis indicates that the Sharpe ratios of Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are converging, suggesting that these two assets are becoming increasingly comparable in terms of risk-adjusted returns. The Sharpe ratio measures the return of an investment relative to its risk, assessing performance against a risk-free benchmark while factoring in volatility.
The chart below tracks weekly data from 2018 to May 2025, showing that Bitcoin's returns (1x) are catching up to gold's returns (4x), with gold's relative performance at $22.48 and Bitcoin at $15.95.
From an asset allocation perspective, Timmer recommends a 4:1 ratio of gold to Bitcoin as a hedge for value storage, noting an interesting observation. Timmer states:
Although Bitcoin's value storage (SoV) credentials have improved with prices exceeding $100,000, the Ecoinometrics newsletter focusing on Bitcoin macroeconomic analysis points out that the first quarter of 2025 may not be smooth sailing.
In 2024, net inflows into Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reached $35 billion, purchasing 500,000 BTC and driving a 120% return. However, the start of 2025 has been different. In the first four months, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs were less than one-third of those in 2024, while gold ETFs attracted more funds.
The newsletter notes that this shift may be attributed to uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policy, trade policy, and the U.S. economy in the first quarter. Ecoinometrics states:
In 2025, gold prices rose by 30.33%, while Bitcoin only increased by 3.84%, with gold benefiting from its stability during times of economic instability. Additionally, the analysis indicates that Bitcoin performs better as a "high beta growth asset," thriving in environments of rising liquidity and currency depreciation.
Recent developments show a shift: clearer U.S. trade policies, a softened Federal Reserve stance, and looser financial conditions have led to continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
A higher Sharpe ratio is a positive indicator for Bitcoin, significantly increasing the likelihood of it breaking the historical high of $110,000 in May. According to data from crypto custodian Bitcoin Suisse, Bitcoin's high Sharpe ratio allows it to perform well in both risk-seeking and risk-averse environments following the U.S. presidential election.
Currently, over 88% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, with BTC representing a high-confidence bet that may enter an "acceleration phase." Bitcoin Suisse's research director, Dominic Weibei, states:
Similarly, Cointelegraph reports that based on gold-based predictions, Bitcoin has a "considerable chance" of reaching $250,000 or higher in 2025, a forecast derived from its interaction with gold. The report uses a scenario framework based on gold models to predict Bitcoin's potential revaluation as a non-sovereign hard asset.
If Bitcoin's network value (in terms of gold) follows a power curve and gold maintains its current value, analysts predict it could reach $444,000 by 2025. However, Bitcoin analyst Apsk32 provides a more conservative estimate, suggesting a "reasonable" target of $220,000 for this year.
Related: Is the Bitcoin Bull Market "Almost Over"? Traders Divided on BTC Price at $105,000
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading activities involve risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
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