Calm down and listen to the pulse of the market! 🧐

Pay attention to the data from the global bond market 📊. Currently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.54%, and the 30-year yield has skyrocketed to 5.02%. This is very bad data 📊. In major developed countries like Japan and Europe, the 10-year government bond yields are also soaring. Many may not realize what this means.

🚨 Bond yields are surging. Not because of inflation, nor because of the Federal Reserve. It marks the beginning of a collapse in global investment institutions' trust in the U.S. financial system. This aligns with Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. Although the market has shown remarkable resilience, data indicates that institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings in U.S. stocks!

During my student years, financial mentors would always emphasize in class: U.S. Treasuries are the cornerstone of global finance. This is basic financial knowledge; the pricing of any asset is often linked to it!

• Banks use U.S. Treasuries as safe capital.
• Hedge funds use U.S. Treasuries as collateral.
• Foreign central banks hold assets worth trillions of dollars.
• Mortgage rates, credit cards, and commercial loans are all priced based on this.

Therefore, when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surges, all other adverse situations will follow, especially a liquidity crisis.

If I remember correctly, last month, hedge funds using U.S. Treasuries as collateral were required to meet margin calls, including those from insurance companies in Japan and Taiwan.

Why? Because when bond prices fall (yields rise), the value of the collateral also decreases. In this chain reaction, these institutions are forced to sell more U.S. Treasuries. This leads to further price declines, further increases in bond yields, ultimately creating a vicious cycle.

This is also the essence of the 2008 financial crisis. If anyone remembers, based on this mechanism: collateral depreciation → forced selling → liquidity tightening, it ultimately triggered the first landmine, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers! This is why we are currently not optimistic about U.S. stocks. In the short term, BTC may be affected by this, but in the long term, there is no need to worry!

The loosening of the U.S. dollar credit system is undoubtedly a long-term positive for #BTC. Especially with the recent 13F disclosure data, Goldman Sachs has become the single largest institutional holder of #BTC ETF. This is a typical signal; now is undoubtedly a race against time. We have moved from gold-dollar credit binding, to oil-dollar credit binding, to the future #BTC-dollar credit binding. The question is, which will decline faster: the U.S. dollar credit or the BTC-dollar binding? Time will provide the answer. Therefore, BTC at 1 million dollars, with a market value of 21 trillion, is comparable to the 35 trillion debt of U.S. Treasuries. From a feasibility perspective, there are basically no issues!

After all this talk, it is undoubtedly a reminder for everyone: in a tail-end market, manage your positions well. Good meals are not afraid of being late; opportunities are always there. It’s just that many times, we lack patience and want to earn every kind of money, easily picking up sesame seeds while losing watermelons. It might be worth considering the larger cycles and macro perspectives; perhaps we can clear the fog and see the essence!

👇 Picture taken a few days ago at an altitude of 4333 meters, enjoying coffee and pizza 🍕. This was the highest altitude experience of my life. Experience life more, and your thinking will become more diversified!

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