Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “Can Solo Mining Beat Corporate Bitcoin Miners?”
Author: Dr. Michael Tabone, Senior Economist at Cointelegraph
Bitcoin (BTC) mining has long been dominated by large industrial operations, with publicly traded companies like Marathon Digital, CleanSpark, and Riot Platforms controlling a significant share of global hash power. But what if this balance of power were to change? What would happen if millions of individuals in industrialized countries began home mining?
Home Bitcoin Miners
This scenario is not as unrealistic as it may seem, especially with the rise of small, efficient ASIC miners like the Bitaxe Gamma 601, FutureBit Apollo, iPollo v1 Mini BTC, and Antminer S9 SE/Hydro, which offer hash rates ranging from 1.2 to 17 terahashes per second for home miners. Some independent home Bitcoin miners have even successfully mined blocks, including those on January 29 and 30, 2025. So, what if every Bitcoin holder in the U.S. or even in industrialized countries ran a solo mining rig?
If every Bitcoin holder in the U.S. (approximately 67 million residents) deployed the lowest hash rate miner on the list, the network would see an increase of about 80.4 EH/s, which would be a significant boost to the global network, but it would not completely surpass the large corporate miners.
Going further, if Bitcoin holders from all industrialized countries, including Europe (31 million), Japan (3.7 million), South Korea (15.6 million), and Australia (about 5 million), joined in, the cumulative hash rate would reach an astonishing 146.76 EH/s, significantly enhancing the existing global hash power (see Figure 1).
Global Bitcoin Hash Rate (as of January 30, 2025): 835.04 EH/s
Percentage change for U.S. miners: (80.4 EH/s ÷ 835.04 EH/s) × 100 ≈ 9.63%
Percentage change for industrialized country miners: (146.76 EH/s ÷ 835.04 EH/s) × 100 ≈ 17.57%
Changes in Bitcoin Network Hash Rate: U.S. and Industrialized Countries - Source: Dr. Michael Tabone.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?
Industrial mining companies would have to compete with truly decentralized miners. With no single entity able to control mining, Bitcoin's security model would be strengthened, making it more resilient against threats from nation-state attacks, regulatory capture, or corporate collusion. A widely distributed hash power would eliminate miner-driven censorship issues, protecting Bitcoin from government crackdowns.
Network security would reach unprecedented levels, making 51% attacks economically unfeasible. However, the increased participation in mining would also bring significant challenges, primarily in terms of energy consumption, accessibility, and incentives.
Practical Barriers to Large-Scale Solo Mining
Despite the many benefits, several factors make it unlikely for every Bitcoin holder in industrialized countries to engage in solo mining. One of the most direct barriers is cost. Even efficient small miners like the Bitaxe Gamma have an upfront price ranging from $180 to $220, which may be reasonable for some but remains a financial barrier for many.
Electricity costs vary significantly across regions, making mining unfeasible in high electricity price markets.
However, the most significant challenge may be the lower probability of earning rewards in a high-difficulty environment. Bitcoin mining is already akin to a lottery. If millions of new miners join, the rewards for solo mining would become even scarcer. Today, most home miners use mining pools to ensure stable payouts, but relying on large mining pools introduces centralization risks.
Chip Procurement Issues
Even with a surge in demand for home mining, there remains a critical bottleneck in ASIC production. The semiconductor industry is highly concentrated, with only a few foundries (like TSMC and Samsung) capable of producing efficient chips.
There are two aspects to the problem: priority often goes to large mining companies—such as Bitmain and MicroBT—while other major players lock in bulk orders in advance. Geopolitical tensions, resource shortages, and manufacturing constraints also limit chip production.
Compared to industrial-scale mining operations, home mining will remain supply-constrained without alternative ASIC manufacturers. During the Trump administration, there may have been an increase in domestic ASIC chip production in the U.S., which could affect this dynamic.
How ASIC Prices Respond to Large-Scale Demand
If millions suddenly want ASIC miners, prices will skyrocket.
Amateur ASIC miners (Bitaxe Gamma, FutureBit Apollo): Since these devices use relatively low-end silicon chips, prices will rise moderately (from $180 → about $400).
Industrial ASIC miners (Antminer S19, Whatsminer M50): Due to chip shortages and high demand, prices could soar fourfold (from $3,000 → over $12,000).
Due to supply chain constraints, prices will spike in the short term, but as manufacturing scales up, prices will stabilize at a higher yet reasonable level.
Is All This Feasible?
While this is not a literal proposal, this thought experiment highlights a key reality: the more individuals participate in Bitcoin mining, the stronger and more decentralized the network becomes. Solo Bitcoin mining ensures that mining is sufficiently distributed and not dominated by a few entities.
Bitcoin's security model relies on incentive mechanisms. While corporate miners currently play a significant role, a wave of sovereign individuals running home miners could become a game-changing factor. If segments of the population in industrialized countries begin to embrace small-scale mining, the network will be more decentralized than it is today.
Will Bitcoin enthusiasts drive broader mining adoption, or will industrial-scale miners continue to consolidate power? The future of Bitcoin's decentralization may hinge on the answer to this question.
Author: Dr. Michael Tabone, Senior Economist at Cointelegraph
Related: Cryptocurrency Optimism Is Not Just Hype, but a Structural Feature
This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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