Source: Cointelegraph
Original: “What will Bitcoin price be if gold hits $5,000?”
Key Points:
Bitcoin (BTC) has historically outperformed gold, recently showing six times the performance of gold.
The momentum of gold rising to $5,000 could create conditions for a significant increase in Bitcoin.
A weaker dollar and rising global liquidity remain key drivers for both assets.
The move of gold towards $5,000 per ounce has become a hot topic among hard asset bulls, including Ed Yardeni, chief economist at Yardeni Research, and billionaire investor John Paulson.
But how will the price of Bitcoin (BTC), often referred to as "digital gold" by many investors, evolve if precious metal prices continue to rise?
Historically, Bitcoin has shown stronger growth performance in market environments where it rises in sync with gold.
From March 2020 to March 2022, during the Federal Reserve's ultra-loose monetary policy, the price of BTC surged approximately 1,110%, while gold only increased by 35.5%.
In the market upcycle from November 2022 to November 2023, alongside the growth of global money supply (M2), gold prices rose about 25%, while Bitcoin achieved a robust growth of 150%, demonstrating nearly six times the performance of gold.
If gold rises from its current price of about $3,265 to $5,000, it would represent a 50% increase. Based on this, if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin's price could potentially see a 300% increase, reaching a new high of $285,000 per coin.
This prediction aligns with the Bitcoin price target derived from the power law model by analyst apsk32, which is standardized against gold's market capitalization.
Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors, predicts that gold prices will rise to $6,000 during President Trump's term, noting that gold's performance has lagged significantly behind the growth of global M2 money supply.
He associates this bold target with Trump's tariff policies, suggesting that these policies could lead to a 25% depreciation of the dollar, while strong central bank demand and under-allocation by investors will collectively enhance gold's investment appeal.
Holmes predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to break through the supply resistance level of $97,000, rising to the range of $120,000-$150,000 in the short term, while its long-term value potential could reach $250,000 as adoption accelerates.
At the end of April, gold prices hit a historic high of $3,500, with a year-to-date increase of 33.35%. As of May 5, gold prices have slightly retraced to $3,237. In contrast, Bitcoin's year-to-date increase has only been 0.82%.
Several market analysts, including analyst Cryptollica, have noted that Bitcoin has historically followed gold's trends after a certain lag, suggesting that if Bitcoin breaks through its current consolidation range, it could advance towards the $155,000 price level.
The phenomenon of Bitcoin retracing 30% from its historical high of about $110,000 appears relatively mild compared to past instances of over 50% large-scale sell-offs. This market resilience not only reinforces Bitcoin's role as a safe-haven asset alongside gold but also increases the likelihood that Bitcoin will follow gold's upward trend when market conditions improve.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) non-liquid supply reaches 14 million coins, holders set a new record in the bull market.
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