Last week (May 6 - May 12), both BTC and ETH surged, with BTC's price returning to $100,000 and ETH experiencing a maximum increase of over 45% during the week. Driven by the 10% reciprocal tariff agreement between the US and UK and positive remarks from Trump, BTC's price broke through the $100,000 mark from $95,784.61, followed by a consolidation phase, peaking at $105,819.45 on the 12th. Currently, BTC's price stabilizes around $102,498, with a maximum increase of 10.47% during the week.
Fueled by network upgrades and easing economic conditions, ETH skyrocketed by 45.77% last week. On May 8, ETH rebounded from a low of $1,789.12, rising over 40% within 72 hours and breaking through the critical resistance level of $2,600. On the 12th, ETH peaked at $2,624 before slightly retreating, with the current ETH price around $2,453 (data source: Binance spot, May 13, 14:50).
Market Interpretation
Tariff drama comes to an end, US reaches agreements with multiple trading partners
Recently, US tariffs have gradually shifted from a heated state to a peaceful resolution. With the US signing agreements with several trade partners last week, international capital has gradually flowed back to the US market, and risk assets have responded by rising. As of the close of US markets on May 13, the Nasdaq rose 4.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 3.26%, and the Dow Jones climbed 2.81%, with all three major US stock indices closing at high levels.
Tech stocks performed impressively, with Amazon rising nearly 8%, Meta up nearly 8%, Tesla increasing by 6.8%, Apple up 6.3%, and Nvidia and AMD both rising over 5%. Utilities and consumer staples sectors retreated.
China and the US reach a trade agreement in Geneva, crypto market welcomes positive catalysts
On May 12, China and the US reached a temporary tariff agreement in Geneva, Switzerland, significantly reducing bilateral tariffs over the next three months, with the US rate dropping from 145% to 30% and China's from 125% to 10%, while establishing a continuous consultation mechanism. Following the announcement, market expectations for inflation and dollar appreciation cooled, leading to heightened expectations for dollar liquidity turning points, and the crypto market strengthened overall. BTC briefly surged to $105,000, while US Treasury yields rose in tandem, with the 2-year and 10-year rates increasing by 12 and 8 basis points, respectively.
According to CoinW data, the global crypto market capitalization rose to $3.59 trillion last week, a week-on-week increase of 2.5%. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates earlier, possibly in Q3 2025, further benefiting crypto assets.
The agreement significantly reduces geopolitical risk premiums, alleviating concerns about supply chain disruptions and clearly directing capital towards risk assets. CoinW data shows that the global crypto market capitalization rose to $3.59 trillion last week, a week-on-week increase of 2.5%. The market expects the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates earlier, further benefiting crypto assets. Meanwhile, regulatory uncertainty remains a primary risk point. With rising speculative enthusiasm and concentrated liquidity, investors need to be cautious of short-term pullback risks.
ETH surges 40% in the short term, entering the technical overbought zone
After a previous decline, ETH experienced a strong upward trend last week, with a short-term increase exceeding 45%, rising from $1,730 to over $2,600. It not only broke through the previous consolidation range but also topped traditional media search rankings, drawing attention to the ETH ecosystem.
This round of ETH's rise is driven by two main factors. First, continuous capital inflow, long positions accumulation, and short squeeze. On-chain data shows sustained capital inflow, with large buy orders concentrated in mainstream exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Additionally, in the futures market, long positions have increased, with CME data indicating that institutional buying positions grew by over 15% within a week.
On the other hand, the active Layer 2 ecosystem, rising ETH staking yields, and the upcoming ETH upgrade (Pectra) have become major positives, enhancing market expectations for ETH's long-term value. Investors need to be cautious of market overheating risks in the short term, as ETH has entered the technical overbought zone, and some profit-taking has begun.
BTC spot ETF sees inflows for three consecutive weeks, Trump's policy expectations boost market optimism
Last week, BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $920 million, marking three consecutive weeks of net inflows, with the previous two weeks being $3.03 billion and $1.81 billion, respectively. The continuous inflow of funds indicates that the market remains optimistic about BTC's value and future trends.
This round of increase is closely related to Trump's policies. On May 8, Trump announced on social media that he had reached a tariff agreement with major countries and stated, "It's a good time to buy crypto assets." Additionally, the nomination of pro-crypto individuals as SEC chair and the advancement of stablecoin legislation further strengthened market expectations for a shift in US policy.
More Information
US April CPI data will reveal expectations for slowing inflation, potentially driving BTC to new highs
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April will be released at 8 PM Beijing time on Tuesday, with the market generally expecting confirmation of a trend toward slowing inflation. This could increase expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and drive BTC prices to challenge historical highs, while also accelerating the rise of altcoin markets.
CPI data plays a crucial guiding role in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Rising expectations for interest rate cuts will be a direct catalyst for high-risk assets like BTC. However, the trend of core CPI remains a key variable; if rents or service prices rise, it may lead to core CPI exceeding expectations, thereby weakening rate cut expectations.
South Korea's Democratic Party establishes a digital asset committee ahead of the presidential election, policy support drives industry development
On May 13, South Korea's Democratic Party announced that its digital asset committee under the presidential election preparation committee will hold its first meeting. The committee has two subgroups, one focusing on industry growth and innovation, and the other on supporting policy and legal frameworks. The market has positive expectations for this new policy, anticipating it will attract more capital into the digital asset industry.
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