The issue of tariffs has been showing some signs since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May. Although it seems that progress on tariffs is good now, the United States has not announced a complete tariff strategy. From Powell's speech, it appears that there is still no full expectation regarding tariffs, which may be directly related to Trump not communicating with the Federal Reserve.

Personally, I believe that before tariffs are fully implemented, since we are currently in a pause state, the actual results may not necessarily be favorable. In other words, the tariffs currently only consist of the basic 10% tariff, without any reciprocal tariffs being imposed. We do not know whether reciprocal tariffs will continue or how much they will be.

If the average reciprocal tariff is 5%, then the overall tariff for the United States is also 15%. This is three times higher than the average tariff in 2024. The impact of this will certainly require the Federal Reserve to look at the data to make a decision. Therefore, the current attitude of the Federal Reserve towards tariffs is to wait for data and not make any predictions.

This has also led to economic indicators being the most closely monitored data by the Federal Reserve, as they can assess the impact of tariffs through economic performance. For example, the GDP in the first quarter was originally negative, but analysis pointed out that domestic consumption in the United States is very strong, and it was then believed that the strong domestic consumption was due to "tariff grabbing."

Thus, I personally think that the Federal Reserve will not easily adjust interest rates. If they do adjust, especially in the absence of clear tariff situations, it is likely because the economic trend is not looking good enough.

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